Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 19/09, 19:00

Prediction: Aguas Santas vs Madeira

Team pages: Aguas Santas · Madeira

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.6Total

Aguas Santas27.7

Madeira32.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

Aguas Santas Madeira

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 57.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguas Santas 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWW

Madeira 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Aguas Santas 1–1–4 Madeira (6 last)

Madeira28-27Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas22-29Madeira
Aguas Santas27-26Madeira
Madeira31-26Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas30-37Madeira
Madeira32-32Aguas Santas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguas Santas 1424 · Madeira 1598

	Aguas Santas	Madeira
Our model	35%	65%
Market	46%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 60.6 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +3.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.6Aguas Santas 27.7 · Madeira 32.9

Over / Under 57.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~62 pts · strength 5

Match keys

H2H favours Madeira: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aguas Santas	Madeira
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.8 / 34.3	32.3 / 27.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.6 / 32.8	34 / 28.2
Est. result	28	33

Est. total60.6

Line O/U57.5

Diff.3.1

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

X8.00

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.75

Under 57.51.95

Diff.: 3.65 · Est. total: 61.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +63’	1.95	8.00	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguas Santas 1–1–4 Madeira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/12/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	28-27	Aguas Santas
04/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	22-29	Madeira
11/12/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	27-26	Madeira
28/09/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	31-26	Aguas Santas
18/05/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	30-37	Madeira
20/04/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	32-32	Aguas Santas

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	3	3	0	126	80	9
2	Madeira	3	3	0	101	78	9
3	SL Benfica	3	2	1	104	90	7
4	Aguas Santas	3	2	1	85	85	7
5	FC Porto	2	2	0	79	53	6
6	Belenenses	3	1	2	80	83	5
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	3	1	2	89	94	5
8	Vitoria SC	3	1	2	96	93	5
9	GC Santo Tirso	3	1	2	81	99	5
10	ABC Braga	2	1	1	64	74	4
11	AD Carvalhos	3	0	3	72	97	3
12	AA Avanca	3	0	3	73	124	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguas Santas	Madeira
AD Carvalhos	31-23 W	31-21 W
Belenenses	31-28 W	32-30 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguas Santas

LLLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-23	W
05/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-28	W
29/08	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	23-34	L
23/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-42	L
09/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-37	L
02/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	25-31	L
24/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	24-41	L
12/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
29/03	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
07/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	30-36	L

Madeira

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W
23/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
10/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	32-30	W
03/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	35-30	W
26/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
11/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
28/03	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
07/03	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-24	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguas Santas vs Madeira?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Aguas Santas 46% · Madeira 54%).

How many points are expected in Aguas Santas vs Madeira?

The model estimates 60.6 total points (Aguas Santas 27.7 · Madeira 32.9).

Over or under 57.5 points?

Recent history points to over 57.5 points (65%).