Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 12/09, 17:00

Prediction: Madeira vs Vitoria SC

Team pages: Vitoria SC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.8Total

Madeira30

Vitoria SC27.9

1X2

78% 22%

Madeira Vitoria SC

Markets

Over 53.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Madeira 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Vitoria SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Madeira 5–1–0 Vitoria SC (6 last)

Vitoria SC26-28Madeira
Madeira34-23Vitoria SC
Madeira35-23Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC30-33Madeira
Vitoria SC28-33Madeira
Madeira37-37Vitoria SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madeira 1597 · Vitoria SC 1493

	Madeira	Vitoria SC
Our model	73%	27%
Market	74%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 57.8 points · Bet365 line 53.5 · +4.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.8Madeira 30 · Vitoria SC 27.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madeira (rating 1597 vs 1493).
Madeira is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Madeira: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Madeira	Vitoria SC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.3 / 26.8	29.6 / 27.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.4 / 26.8	31.8 / 26
Est. result	30	28

Est. total57.8

Line O/U53.5

Diff.4.3

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X10.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 53.51.95

Under 53.51.75

Diff.: 4.25 · Est. total: 57.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +16’	1.22	10.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madeira 5–1–0 Vitoria SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	26-28	Madeira
01/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	34-23	Vitoria SC
01/03/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	35-23	Vitoria SC
02/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	30-33	Madeira
24/02/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	28-33	Madeira
14/10/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	37-37	Vitoria SC

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	2	2	0	83	48	6
2	Madeira	2	2	0	63	41	6
3	SL Benfica	2	2	0	71	53	6
4	Belenenses	2	1	1	55	55	4
5	Aguas Santas	2	1	1	54	62	4
6	Vitoria SC	2	1	1	59	55	4
7	FC Porto	1	1	0	42	20	3
8	ABC Braga	1	1	0	32	31	3
9	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	2	0	2	61	69	2
10	AD Carvalhos	2	0	2	49	66	2
11	GC Santo Tirso	2	0	2	45	69	2
12	AA Avanca	2	0	2	43	88	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madeira	Vitoria SC
AD Carvalhos	31-21 W	35-28 W
Belenenses	32-30 W	24-27 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Madeira (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madeira

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W
23/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
10/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	32-30	W
03/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	35-30	W
26/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
11/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
28/03	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
07/03	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-24	W
25/02	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W

Vitoria SC

LLWDLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-28	W
29/08	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	24-27	L
23/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	32-25	W
09/05	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
02/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	35-23	W
25/04	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	23-26	L
11/04	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-26	D
28/03	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
07/03	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	28-29	L
01/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-40	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madeira vs Vitoria SC?

Our model gives 78% to Madeira.

How many points are expected in Madeira vs Vitoria SC?

The model estimates 57.8 total points (Madeira 30 · Vitoria SC 27.9).