Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: SL Benfica vs FC Porto

Team pages: SL Benfica · FC Porto

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.4Total

SL Benfica29.2

FC Porto32.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

50% 50%

SL Benfica FC Porto

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

SL Benfica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWLWW

FC Porto 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

SL Benfica 1–2–3 FC Porto (6 last)

SL Benfica32-29FC Porto
FC Porto42-32SL Benfica
SL Benfica29-29FC Porto
FC Porto27-27SL Benfica
FC Porto37-34SL Benfica
SL Benfica29-30FC Porto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SL Benfica 1532 · FC Porto 1559

	SL Benfica	FC Porto
Our model	56%	44%
Market	41%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 61.4 points · Bet365 line 61.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.4SL Benfica 29.2 · FC Porto 32.2

Match keys

H2H favours FC Porto: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SL Benfica	FC Porto
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.5 / 30.9	35.3 / 28.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 28.2	36.6 / 28.2
Est. result	29	32

Est. total61.4

Line O/U61.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.20

X8.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.85

Under 61.51.85

Diff.: 1.7 · Est. total: 63.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +13’	2.20	8.50	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SL Benfica 1–2–3 FC Porto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	32-29	FC Porto
11/04/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	42-32	SL Benfica
07/03/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	29-29	FC Porto
15/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	27-27	SL Benfica
24/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	37-34	SL Benfica
06/04/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	29-30	FC Porto

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	2	2	0	83	48	6
2	Madeira	2	2	0	63	41	6
3	SL Benfica	2	2	0	71	53	6
4	Belenenses	2	1	1	55	55	4
5	Aguas Santas	2	1	1	54	62	4
6	Vitoria SC	2	1	1	59	55	4
7	FC Porto	1	1	0	42	20	3
8	ABC Braga	1	1	0	32	31	3
9	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	2	0	2	61	69	2
10	AD Carvalhos	2	0	2	49	66	2
11	GC Santo Tirso	2	0	2	45	69	2
12	AA Avanca	2	0	2	43	88	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SL Benfica	FC Porto
Aguas Santas	34-23 W	42-29 W
Sporting Clube	22-34 L	29-36 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SL Benfica

WDWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	37-30	W
29/08	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	34-23	W
23/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	22-34	L
09/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-29	W
02/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	31-25	W
24/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	28-40	L
11/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-42	L
29/03	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	35-27	W
07/03	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-29	D
28/02	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	35-30	W

FC Porto

WDWLWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	42-20	W
23/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	42-29	W
09/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-32	L
02/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
24/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	41-24	W
11/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	42-32	W
28/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	30-33	L
14/03	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	41-30	W
07/03	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-29	D
21/02	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-22	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SL Benfica vs FC Porto?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (SL Benfica 50% · FC Porto 50%).

How many points are expected in SL Benfica vs FC Porto?

The model estimates 61.4 total points (SL Benfica 29.2 · FC Porto 32.2).