Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: BM Nava vs Atletico Valladolid

Team pages: BM Nava · Atletico Valladolid

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.4Total

BM Nava30.2

Atletico Valladolid32.2

1X2

34% 66%

BM Nava Atletico Valladolid

Recent form · 10 last

BM Nava 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLWL

Atletico Valladolid 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

BM Nava 2–4 Atletico Valladolid (6 last)

Atletico Valladolid36-35BM Nava
BM Nava29-30Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid35-32BM Nava
BM Nava38-33Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid32-29BM Nava
BM Nava23-22Atletico Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BM Nava 1463 · Atletico Valladolid 1576

	BM Nava	Atletico Valladolid
Our model	44%	56%
Market	25%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 62.4 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.4BM Nava 30.2 · Atletico Valladolid 32.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Valladolid (rating 1463 vs 1576).
Atletico Valladolid is a clear favourite (66% market).
H2H favours Atletico Valladolid: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BM Nava	Atletico Valladolid
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.7 / 33.7	32.1 / 28.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 36.2	34.8 / 28.4
Est. result	30	32

Est. total62.4

Line O/U61.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.80

X9.00

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.88

2 (-2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 1.55 · Est. total: 63.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
X	10.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
2	1.32 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16	4.75	10.00	1.32
11:15 +1’	3.80▼	9.00▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BM Nava 2–0–4 Atletico Valladolid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	36-35	BM Nava
20/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	29-30	Atletico Valladolid
15/02/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	35-32	BM Nava
21/09/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	38-33	Atletico Valladolid
14/04/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	32-29	BM Nava
11/11/23 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	23-22	Atletico Valladolid

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Valladolid	6	6	0	0	202	168	12
2	Bidasoa Irun	6	6	0	0	210	178	12
3	FC Barcelona	5	5	0	0	210	151	10
4	BM Logrono La Rioja	6	4	1	1	207	204	9
5	BM Granollers	5	4	0	1	170	152	8
6	BM Torrelavega	6	3	1	2	184	162	7
7	Caserio Ciudad Real	5	3	1	1	160	155	7
8	Ademar Leon	6	2	0	4	212	214	4
9	Puerto Sagunto	6	2	0	4	182	184	4
10	BM Triana	6	2	0	4	191	203	4
11	CMB Sporting Alicante	6	2	0	4	176	203	4
12	Ciudad Encantada	5	1	1	3	160	164	3
13	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	6	1	1	4	167	200	3
14	BM Cangas	6	1	0	5	193	209	2
15	BM Nava	6	1	0	5	173	216	2
16	Villa De Aranda	6	0	1	5	177	211	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BM Nava	Atletico Valladolid
Puerto Sagunto	24-39 L	37-30 W
Ademar Leon	38-36 W	28-27 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BM Nava

WLWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	24-39	L
10/10	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	38-36	W
03/10	BM Triana Spain Liga Asobal	34-35	L
26/09	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	33-38	L
19/09	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	19-33	L
12/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	25-35	L
13/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	41-28	W
10/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-25	W
31/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	35-36	L
22/05	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-32	W

Atletico Valladolid

LWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-26	W
11/10	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	33-24	W
02/10	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	40-36	W
27/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	37-30	W
19/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	34-26	W
12/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	28-26	W
31/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	36-35	W
23/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	28-27	W
10/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	25-23	W
03/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BM Nava vs Atletico Valladolid?

Our model gives 66% to Atletico Valladolid.

How many points are expected in BM Nava vs Atletico Valladolid?

The model estimates 62.4 total points (BM Nava 30.2 · Atletico Valladolid 32.2).