Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs HC Erlangen

Team pages: SG Flensburg-Handewitt · HC Erlangen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62Total

SG Flensburg-Handewitt32.7

HC Erlangen29.2

1X2

87% 13%

SG Flensburg-Handewitt HC Erlangen

Recent form · 10 last

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLWW

HC Erlangen 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 6–0 HC Erlangen (6 last)

HC Erlangen29-34SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt36-30HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen26-32SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt42-28HC Erlangen
SG Flensburg-Handewitt32-25HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen22-27SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1594 · HC Erlangen 1431

	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	HC Erlangen
Our model	79%	21%
Market	88%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 62 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62SG Flensburg-Handewitt 32.7 · HC Erlangen 29.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt (rating 1594 vs 1431).
SG Flensburg-Handewitt is a clear favourite (87% market).
H2H favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	HC Erlangen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	35.3 / 32.7	26.1 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	34.8 / 34.2	25.4 / 28.6
Est. result	33	29

Est. total62

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.07

X18.00

214.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.78

2 (+6.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 0.85 · Est. total: 61.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07
X	18.00 → 18.00	Bet365 18.00
2	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:31 +18’	1.07	18.00	14.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 6–0–0 HC Erlangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	29-34	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
26/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	36-30	HC Erlangen
09/02/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	26-32	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
06/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	42-28	HC Erlangen
11/02/24 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	32-25	HC Erlangen
21/10/23 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	22-27	SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	2	2	0	0	67	60	4
2	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	2	1	1	0	60	59	3
2	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	64	63	3
4	THW Kiel	1	1	0	0	35	27	2
5	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	1	1	0	0	30	26	2
6	Fuchse Berlin	1	1	0	0	33	31	2
6	SC Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	33	31	2
6	SG BBM Bietigheim	1	1	0	0	35	33	2
9	MT Melsungen	2	1	0	1	62	51	2
10	Vfl Gummersbach	2	1	0	1	62	59	2
11	Frisch Auf Goppingen	2	1	0	1	50	61	2
12	HC Erlangen	2	0	1	1	58	60	1
13	HSV Hamburg	2	0	1	1	60	64	1
14	HSG Wetzlar	1	0	0	1	33	35	0
14	ThSV Eisenach	1	0	0	1	31	33	0
16	Bergischer HC	2	0	0	2	58	64	0
16	Rhein Neckar Lowen	2	0	0	2	57	63	0
18	TBV Lemgo	1	0	0	1	27	35	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	HC Erlangen
Bergischer HC	34-29 W	26-32 L
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	33-37 L	17-22 L
SC Magdeburg	30-31 L	31-35 L
Rhein Neckar Lowen	36-33 W	29-27 W
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	35-32 W	28-28 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SG Flensburg-Handewitt

WWWWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W
28/08	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-43	L
04/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	36-31	W
24/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	33-37	L
21/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
09/05	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
24/04	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	40-30	W
11/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
04/04	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	35-32	W

HC Erlangen

WLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L
30/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
25/04	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	23-31	L
12/04	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-35	L
05/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	29-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs HC Erlangen?

Our model gives 87% to SG Flensburg-Handewitt.

How many points are expected in SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs HC Erlangen?

The model estimates 62 total points (SG Flensburg-Handewitt 32.7 · HC Erlangen 29.2).