Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 13/09, 16:30

Prediction: HSV Hamburg vs Frisch Auf Goppingen

Team pages: HSV Hamburg · Frisch Auf Goppingen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.7Total

HSV Hamburg30.5

Frisch Auf Goppingen31.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

66% 34%

HSV Hamburg Frisch Auf Goppingen

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hamburg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWWLDL

Frisch Auf Goppingen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

HSV Hamburg 3–1–2 Frisch Auf Goppingen (6 last)

HSV Hamburg28-34Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen34-30HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg31-30Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen25-25HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg33-31Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen27-32HSV Hamburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hamburg 1488 · Frisch Auf Goppingen 1530

	HSV Hamburg	Frisch Auf Goppingen
Our model	54%	46%
Market	66%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 61.7 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.7HSV Hamburg 30.5 · Frisch Auf Goppingen 31.1

Match keys

H2H favours HSV Hamburg: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSV Hamburg	Frisch Auf Goppingen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 31.7	30.1 / 30.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.2 / 31.8	28.2 / 31
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.7

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.42

X9.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.88

2 (+2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 1.25 · Est. total: 61.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +39’	1.42	9.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hamburg 3–1–2 Frisch Auf Goppingen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	28-34	Frisch Auf Goppingen
13/11/25 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	34-30	HSV Hamburg
27/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	31-30	Frisch Auf Goppingen
06/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	25-25	HSV Hamburg
25/02/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	33-31	Frisch Auf Goppingen
21/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	27-32	HSV Hamburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	3	3	0	0	103	86	6
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	3	3	0	0	105	93	6
3	SC Magdeburg	3	3	0	0	100	93	6
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	3	2	1	0	90	87	5
5	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	3	2	0	1	96	84	4
6	TBV Lemgo	3	2	0	1	94	91	4
7	Fuchse Berlin	3	2	0	1	99	100	4
8	MT Melsungen	3	1	1	1	93	82	3
9	Vfl Gummersbach	3	1	1	1	93	90	3
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	97	97	3
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	3	1	0	2	84	89	2
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	3	1	0	2	81	93	2
13	SG BBM Bietigheim	3	1	0	2	92	105	2
14	HSV Hamburg	3	0	1	2	88	94	1
14	HSG Wetzlar	3	0	1	2	91	97	1
16	HC Erlangen	3	0	1	2	91	98	1
17	ThSV Eisenach	3	0	1	2	89	100	1
18	Bergischer HC	3	0	0	3	84	91	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hamburg	Frisch Auf Goppingen
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	34-34 D	32-33 L
HSG Wetzlar	33-32 W	31-30 W
HC Erlangen	31-23 W	32-30 W
THW Kiel	27-34 L	31-32 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hamburg (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hamburg

LWWLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
02/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W
04/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
25/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-34	L
10/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-41	L
03/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
25/04	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	31-23	W
12/04	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	27-34	L

Frisch Auf Goppingen

WWDWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
02/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	18-31	L
29/08	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-30	W
07/06	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
03/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
25/05	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	34-28	W
07/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
30/04	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D
23/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	32-30	W
09/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hamburg vs Frisch Auf Goppingen?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSV Hamburg 66% · Frisch Auf Goppingen 34%).

How many points are expected in HSV Hamburg vs Frisch Auf Goppingen?

The model estimates 61.7 total points (HSV Hamburg 30.5 · Frisch Auf Goppingen 31.1).