Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 13/09, 16:30

Prediction: HC Erlangen vs Bergischer HC

Team pages: HC Erlangen · Bergischer HC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.8Total

HC Erlangen28

Bergischer HC28.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

66% 34%

HC Erlangen Bergischer HC

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

HC Erlangen 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Bergischer HC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWWLLL

Head-to-head

HC Erlangen 4–2 Bergischer HC (6 last)

HC Erlangen26-32Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC29-33HC Erlangen
Bergischer HC28-25HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen28-27Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC29-30HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen30-27Bergischer HC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Erlangen 1434 · Bergischer HC 1463

	HC Erlangen	Bergischer HC
Our model	56%	44%
Market	64%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 56.8 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · -0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.8HC Erlangen 28 · Bergischer HC 28.8

Match keys

H2H favours HC Erlangen: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Erlangen	Bergischer HC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.5 / 30.3	28 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.8 / 30.4	29 / 29
Est. result	28	29

Est. total56.8

Line O/U57.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.45

X8.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.88

2 (+2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.88

Under 57.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · Est. total: 57

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:12 +41’	1.45	8.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Erlangen 4–0–2 Bergischer HC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	26-32	Bergischer HC
03/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	29-33	HC Erlangen
28/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	28-25	HC Erlangen
06/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	28-27	Bergischer HC
11/06/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	29-30	HC Erlangen
06/10/22 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	30-27	Bergischer HC

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	3	3	0	0	103	86	6
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	3	3	0	0	105	93	6
3	SC Magdeburg	3	3	0	0	100	93	6
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	3	2	1	0	90	87	5
5	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	3	2	0	1	96	84	4
6	TBV Lemgo	3	2	0	1	94	91	4
7	Fuchse Berlin	3	2	0	1	99	100	4
8	MT Melsungen	3	1	1	1	93	82	3
9	Vfl Gummersbach	3	1	1	1	93	90	3
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	97	97	3
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	3	1	0	2	84	89	2
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	3	1	0	2	81	93	2
13	SG BBM Bietigheim	3	1	0	2	92	105	2
14	HSV Hamburg	3	0	1	2	88	94	1
14	HSG Wetzlar	3	0	1	2	91	97	1
16	HC Erlangen	3	0	1	2	91	98	1
17	ThSV Eisenach	3	0	1	2	89	100	1
18	Bergischer HC	3	0	0	3	84	91	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Erlangen	Bergischer HC
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	33-38 L	29-34 L
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	28-28 D	30-29 W
Frisch Auf Goppingen	30-32 L	29-28 W
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	17-22 L	29-30 L
HSG Wetzlar	26-29 L	29-33 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bergischer HC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Erlangen

LLLLLLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L
30/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
25/04	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	23-31	L
12/04	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-35	L

Bergischer HC

DLWDLWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	26-27	L
02/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	29-34	L
28/08	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
07/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
29/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
24/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	23-32	L
08/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
02/05	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-29	W
26/04	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	29-33	L
12/04	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	25-25	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Erlangen vs Bergischer HC?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HC Erlangen 66% · Bergischer HC 34%).

How many points are expected in HC Erlangen vs Bergischer HC?

The model estimates 56.8 total points (HC Erlangen 28 · Bergischer HC 28.8).