Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 12/09, 19:00

Prediction: THW Kiel vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Team pages: THW Kiel · TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.4Total

THW Kiel31.1

TSV Hannover Burgdorf30.2

1X2

73% 27%

THW Kiel TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Recent form · 10 last

THW Kiel 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLWWW

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLDWDW

Head-to-head

THW Kiel 3–2–1 TSV Hannover Burgdorf (6 last)

THW Kiel29-29TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf34-40THW Kiel
TSV Hannover Burgdorf29-29THW Kiel
THW Kiel28-24TSV Hannover Burgdorf
THW Kiel34-20TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf36-33THW Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · THW Kiel 1542 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 1515

	THW Kiel	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Our model	64%	36%
Market	72%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 61.4 points · Bet365 line 61.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.4THW Kiel 31.1 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 30.2

Match keys

THW Kiel is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours THW Kiel: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	THW Kiel	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.1 / 30	31 / 29.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 30.8	30 / 29.6
Est. result	31	30

Est. total61.4

Line O/U61.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.30

X10.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.88

2 (+3.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · Est. total: 60.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +8’	1.30	10.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · THW Kiel 3–2–1 TSV Hannover Burgdorf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	29-29	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
18/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	34-40	THW Kiel
04/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	29-29	THW Kiel
11/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	28-24	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
20/12/23 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	34-20	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
09/11/23 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	36-33	THW Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	3	3	0	0	103	86	6
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	3	3	0	0	105	93	6
3	SC Magdeburg	3	3	0	0	100	93	6
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	3	2	1	0	90	87	5
5	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	3	2	0	1	96	84	4
6	TBV Lemgo	3	2	0	1	94	91	4
7	Fuchse Berlin	3	2	0	1	99	100	4
8	MT Melsungen	3	1	1	1	93	82	3
9	Vfl Gummersbach	3	1	1	1	93	90	3
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	97	97	3
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	3	1	0	2	84	89	2
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	3	1	0	2	81	93	2
13	SG BBM Bietigheim	3	1	0	2	92	105	2
14	HSV Hamburg	3	0	1	2	88	94	1
14	HSG Wetzlar	3	0	1	2	91	97	1
16	HC Erlangen	3	0	1	2	91	98	1
17	ThSV Eisenach	3	0	1	2	89	100	1
18	Bergischer HC	3	0	0	3	84	91	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	THW Kiel	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TBV Lemgo	35-27 W	30-30 D
Bergischer HC	32-23 W	29-30 L
Fuchse Berlin	28-35 L	30-30 D
SC DHFK Leipzig	28-28 D	36-33 W
HSV Hamburg	34-27 W	30-28 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: THW Kiel (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

THW Kiel

WDLLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W
07/06	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	31-34	L
03/06	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
24/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	32-23	W
10/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L
02/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	25-33	L
25/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
12/04	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	34-27	W

TSV Hannover Burgdorf

WDLWDLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
02/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
30/08	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
07/06	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
03/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
21/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
08/05	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
02/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
26/04	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
10/04	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	35-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in THW Kiel vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf?

Our model gives 73% to THW Kiel.

How many points are expected in THW Kiel vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf?

The model estimates 61.4 total points (THW Kiel 31.1 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 30.2).