Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: Vfl Gummersbach vs MT Melsungen

Team pages: Vfl Gummersbach · MT Melsungen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.5Total

Vfl Gummersbach30.2

MT Melsungen28.3

1X2

60% 40%

Vfl Gummersbach MT Melsungen

Recent form · 10 last

Vfl Gummersbach 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWLWLW

MT Melsungen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Vfl Gummersbach 3–3 MT Melsungen (6 last)

MT Melsungen24-31Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach29-28MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen26-25Vfl Gummersbach
MT Melsungen29-25Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach29-26MT Melsungen
Vfl Gummersbach24-29MT Melsungen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vfl Gummersbach 1558 · MT Melsungen 1552

	Vfl Gummersbach	MT Melsungen
Our model	61%	39%
Market	52%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 58.5 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.5Vfl Gummersbach 30.2 · MT Melsungen 28.3

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vfl Gummersbach	MT Melsungen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 28	30.3 / 30.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.4 / 29.2	31 / 29.8
Est. result	30	28

Est. total58.5

Line O/U57.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.80

X7.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.88

Under 57.51.88

Diff.: 2.35 · Est. total: 59.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:34 +16’	1.80	7.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vfl Gummersbach 3–0–3 MT Melsungen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	24-31	Vfl Gummersbach
04/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	29-28	MT Melsungen
19/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	26-25	Vfl Gummersbach
01/04/25 European League	MT Melsungen	29-25	Vfl Gummersbach
25/03/25 European League	Vfl Gummersbach	29-26	MT Melsungen
16/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	24-29	MT Melsungen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	2	2	0	0	67	60	4
2	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	2	1	1	0	60	59	3
2	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	64	63	3
4	THW Kiel	1	1	0	0	35	27	2
5	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	1	1	0	0	30	26	2
6	Fuchse Berlin	1	1	0	0	33	31	2
6	SC Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	33	31	2
6	SG BBM Bietigheim	1	1	0	0	35	33	2
9	MT Melsungen	2	1	0	1	62	51	2
10	Vfl Gummersbach	2	1	0	1	62	59	2
11	Frisch Auf Goppingen	2	1	0	1	50	61	2
12	HC Erlangen	2	0	1	1	58	60	1
13	HSV Hamburg	2	0	1	1	60	64	1
14	HSG Wetzlar	1	0	0	1	33	35	0
14	ThSV Eisenach	1	0	0	1	31	33	0
16	Bergischer HC	2	0	0	2	58	64	0
16	Rhein Neckar Lowen	2	0	0	2	57	63	0
18	TBV Lemgo	1	0	0	1	27	35	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vfl Gummersbach	MT Melsungen
Rhein Neckar Lowen	31-26 W	22-30 L
TSV GWD Minden	32-22 W	32-28 W
Frisch Auf Goppingen	29-29 D	31-18 W
Fuchse Berlin	26-28 L	31-33 L
SC DHFK Leipzig	37-31 W	33-27 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vfl Gummersbach (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vfl Gummersbach

WWLDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
30/08	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
03/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	35-38	L
23/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	32-22	W
10/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	26-22	W
30/04	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D
23/04	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	26-28	L
16/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	37-31	W
11/04	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	32-24	W

MT Melsungen

WWLLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-18	W
27/08	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
04/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-39	L
21/05	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	33-27	W
09/05	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
01/05	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	22-30	L
24/04	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	30-40	L
10/04	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	32-28	W
04/04	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	27-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vfl Gummersbach vs MT Melsungen?

Our model gives 60% to Vfl Gummersbach.

How many points are expected in Vfl Gummersbach vs MT Melsungen?

The model estimates 58.5 total points (Vfl Gummersbach 30.2 · MT Melsungen 28.3).