Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: TBV Lemgo vs HC Erlangen

Team pages: TBV Lemgo · HC Erlangen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.1Total

TBV Lemgo30.1

HC Erlangen28

1X2

80% 20%

TBV Lemgo HC Erlangen

Recent form · 10 last

TBV Lemgo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLWWL

HC Erlangen 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

TBV Lemgo 5–1 HC Erlangen (6 last)

TBV Lemgo27-21HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen24-25TBV Lemgo
TBV Lemgo30-24HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen19-28TBV Lemgo
HC Erlangen26-25TBV Lemgo
TBV Lemgo28-27HC Erlangen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TBV Lemgo 1531 · HC Erlangen 1434

	TBV Lemgo	HC Erlangen
Our model	72%	28%
Market	78%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 58.1 points · Bet365 line 55.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.1TBV Lemgo 30.1 · HC Erlangen 28

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TBV Lemgo (rating 1531 vs 1434).
TBV Lemgo is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours TBV Lemgo: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TBV Lemgo	HC Erlangen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.4 / 32.3	26.3 / 29.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.6 / 32.2	27.4 / 29.6
Est. result	30	28

Est. total58.1

Line O/U55.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.20

X11.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.88

2 (+4.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 55.51.88

Under 55.51.88

Diff.: 4.3 · Est. total: 59.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +22’	1.20	11.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TBV Lemgo 5–0–1 HC Erlangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	27-21	HC Erlangen
16/11/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	24-25	TBV Lemgo
06/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	30-24	HC Erlangen
22/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	19-28	TBV Lemgo
08/02/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	26-25	TBV Lemgo
03/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	28-27	HC Erlangen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	4	4	0	0	144	123	8
2	THW Kiel	4	4	0	0	132	112	8
3	SC Magdeburg	4	4	0	0	138	123	8
4	Fuchse Berlin	4	3	0	1	132	128	6
5	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
6	MT Melsungen	4	2	1	1	125	109	5
7	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	4	2	1	1	116	116	5
8	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	4	2	0	2	123	113	4
9	TBV Lemgo	4	2	0	2	124	130	4
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
11	Vfl Gummersbach	4	1	1	2	121	123	3
12	ThSV Eisenach	4	1	1	2	120	125	3
12	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	124	129	3
14	HC Erlangen	4	1	1	2	120	126	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	4	1	0	3	117	136	2
16	HSV Hamburg	4	0	1	3	119	126	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	4	0	1	3	121	135	1
18	Bergischer HC	4	0	0	4	112	120	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TBV Lemgo	HC Erlangen
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	30-39 L	33-38 L
HSG Wetzlar	31-27 W	26-29 L
SC DHFK Leipzig	30-28 W	29-30 L
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	30-30 D	28-28 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: TBV Lemgo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TBV Lemgo

DLLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	30-39	L
06/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-29	W
03/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-27	W
27/08	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	27-35	L
07/06	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	34-31	W
03/06	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
22/05	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	38-34	W
09/05	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
01/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-32	L
26/04	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D

HC Erlangen

LLLLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L
30/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
25/04	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	23-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TBV Lemgo vs HC Erlangen?

Our model gives 80% to TBV Lemgo.

How many points are expected in TBV Lemgo vs HC Erlangen?

The model estimates 58.1 total points (TBV Lemgo 30.1 · HC Erlangen 28).