Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Bergischer HC vs Fuchse Berlin

Team pages: Bergischer HC · Fuchse Berlin

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.9Total

Bergischer HC29.9

Fuchse Berlin33.9

1X2

20% 80%

Bergischer HC Fuchse Berlin

Recent form · 10 last

Bergischer HC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLLLL

Fuchse Berlin 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Bergischer HC 2–4 Fuchse Berlin (6 last)

Fuchse Berlin42-33Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC28-35Fuchse Berlin
Fuchse Berlin39-27Bergischer HC
Fuchse Berlin29-30Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC30-34Fuchse Berlin
Bergischer HC34-30Fuchse Berlin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bergischer HC 1440 · Fuchse Berlin 1602

	Bergischer HC	Fuchse Berlin
Our model	37%	63%
Market	8%	86%

Estimated total (ours) 63.9 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -1.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.9Bergischer HC 29.9 · Fuchse Berlin 33.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fuchse Berlin (rating 1440 vs 1602).
Fuchse Berlin is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours Fuchse Berlin: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bergischer HC	Fuchse Berlin
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.3 / 29.6	34.8 / 31.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 29.6	35 / 33.2
Est. result	30	34

Est. total63.9

Line O/U65.5

Diff.1.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

112.00

X16.00

21.09

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+6.5)1.88

2 (-6.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.88

Under 65.51.88

Diff.: 3.35 · Est. total: 62.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
X	16.00 → 16.00	Bet365 16.00
2	1.09 → 1.09	Bet365 1.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +24’	12.00	16.00	1.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bergischer HC 2–0–4 Fuchse Berlin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Germany DHB Pokal	Fuchse Berlin	42-33	Bergischer HC
22/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	28-35	Fuchse Berlin
31/08/25 Germany Bundesliga	Fuchse Berlin	39-27	Bergischer HC
30/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	Fuchse Berlin	29-30	Bergischer HC
10/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	30-34	Fuchse Berlin
14/05/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	34-30	Fuchse Berlin

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	4	4	0	0	144	123	8
2	THW Kiel	4	4	0	0	132	112	8
3	SC Magdeburg	4	4	0	0	138	123	8
4	Fuchse Berlin	4	3	0	1	132	128	6
5	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
6	MT Melsungen	4	2	1	1	125	109	5
7	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	4	2	1	1	116	116	5
8	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	4	2	0	2	123	113	4
9	TBV Lemgo	4	2	0	2	124	130	4
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
11	Vfl Gummersbach	4	1	1	2	121	123	3
12	ThSV Eisenach	4	1	1	2	120	125	3
12	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	124	129	3
14	HC Erlangen	4	1	1	2	120	126	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	4	1	0	3	117	136	2
16	HSV Hamburg	4	0	1	3	119	126	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	4	0	1	3	121	135	1
18	Bergischer HC	4	0	0	4	112	120	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bergischer HC	Fuchse Berlin
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	29-34 L	43-38 W
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	29-30 L	34-33 W
THW Kiel	23-32 L	35-28 W
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	30-29 W	30-30 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fuchse Berlin (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bergischer HC

LWDLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
05/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	26-27	L
02/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	29-34	L
28/08	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
07/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
29/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
24/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	23-32	L
08/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
02/05	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-29	W
26/04	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	29-33	L

Fuchse Berlin

WWDWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
06/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-33	W
03/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	32-36	L
27/08	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	43-38	W
04/06	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	39-28	W
29/05	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	41-38	W
21/05	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
10/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	35-28	W
23/04	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	28-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bergischer HC vs Fuchse Berlin?

Our model gives 80% to Fuchse Berlin.

How many points are expected in Bergischer HC vs Fuchse Berlin?

The model estimates 63.9 total points (Bergischer HC 29.9 · Fuchse Berlin 33.9).