Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 20/09, 18:00

Prediction: SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs HSV Hamburg

Team pages: SG Flensburg-Handewitt · HSV Hamburg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

66.3Total

SG Flensburg-Handewitt34.6

HSV Hamburg31.8

1X2

82% 18%

SG Flensburg-Handewitt HSV Hamburg

Recent form · 10 last

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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HSV Hamburg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 5–1–0 HSV Hamburg (6 last)

HSV Hamburg35-38SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt33-29HSV Hamburg
SG Flensburg-Handewitt40-37HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg32-32SG Flensburg-Handewitt
HSV Hamburg30-41SG Flensburg-Handewitt
HSV Hamburg25-37SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1608 · HSV Hamburg 1477

	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	HSV Hamburg
Our model	76%	24%
Market	80%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 66.3 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · +1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points66.3SG Flensburg-Handewitt 34.6 · HSV Hamburg 31.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt (rating 1608 vs 1477).
SG Flensburg-Handewitt is a clear favourite (82% market).
H2H favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	HSV Hamburg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	35.9 / 32.5	31 / 31.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	36.4 / 33.2	31.8 / 31.8
Est. result	35	32

Est. total66.3

Line O/U64.5

Diff.1.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.18

X13.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.78

2 (+4.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.78

Under 64.52.00

Diff.: 0.95 · Est. total: 65.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +23’	1.18	13.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 5–1–0 HSV Hamburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	35-38	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
09/11/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	33-29	HSV Hamburg
08/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	40-37	HSV Hamburg
22/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	32-32	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
15/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	30-41	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
03/02/24 Germany DHB Pokal	HSV Hamburg	25-37	SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	4	4	0	0	144	123	8
2	THW Kiel	4	4	0	0	132	112	8
3	SC Magdeburg	4	4	0	0	138	123	8
4	Fuchse Berlin	4	3	0	1	132	128	6
5	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
6	MT Melsungen	4	2	1	1	125	109	5
7	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	4	2	1	1	116	116	5
8	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	4	2	0	2	123	113	4
9	TBV Lemgo	4	2	0	2	124	130	4
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
11	Vfl Gummersbach	4	1	1	2	121	123	3
12	ThSV Eisenach	4	1	1	2	120	125	3
12	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	124	129	3
14	HC Erlangen	4	1	1	2	120	126	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	4	1	0	3	117	136	2
16	HSV Hamburg	4	0	1	3	119	126	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	4	0	1	3	121	135	1
18	Bergischer HC	4	0	0	4	112	120	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	HSV Hamburg
HC Erlangen	38-33 W	31-23 W
ThSV Eisenach	33-31 W	40-33 W
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	33-37 L	34-34 D
SC Magdeburg	30-31 L	28-41 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hamburg (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SG Flensburg-Handewitt

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	39-30	W
05/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	38-33	W
02/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W
28/08	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-43	L
04/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	36-31	W
24/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	33-37	L
21/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
09/05	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
24/04	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	40-30	W

HSV Hamburg

WWLLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
05/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
02/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W
04/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
25/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-34	L
10/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-41	L
03/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
25/04	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	31-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs HSV Hamburg?

Our model gives 82% to SG Flensburg-Handewitt.

How many points are expected in SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs HSV Hamburg?

The model estimates 66.3 total points (SG Flensburg-Handewitt 34.6 · HSV Hamburg 31.8).