Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: HSG Wetzlar vs Vfl Gummersbach

Team pages: HSG Wetzlar · Vfl Gummersbach

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.9Total

HSG Wetzlar29.6

Vfl Gummersbach31.3

1X2

28% 72%

HSG Wetzlar Vfl Gummersbach

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Wetzlar 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLDL

Vfl Gummersbach 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWLWDL

Head-to-head

HSG Wetzlar 2–4 Vfl Gummersbach (6 last)

Vfl Gummersbach32-24HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar29-31Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach33-24HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar32-29Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach35-28HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar33-31Vfl Gummersbach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Wetzlar 1483 · Vfl Gummersbach 1525

	HSG Wetzlar	Vfl Gummersbach
Our model	54%	46%
Market	10%	83%

Estimated total (ours) 60.9 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.9HSG Wetzlar 29.6 · Vfl Gummersbach 31.3

Match keys

Vfl Gummersbach is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Vfl Gummersbach: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Wetzlar	Vfl Gummersbach
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.8 / 31	29.7 / 28.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.2 / 33.2	29.8 / 30
Est. result	30	31

Est. total60.9

Line O/U61.5

Diff.0.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

19.00

X14.00

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.88

2 (-5.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 1.3 · Est. total: 60.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00
2	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +23’	9.00	14.00	1.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Wetzlar 2–0–4 Vfl Gummersbach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	32-24	HSG Wetzlar
17/11/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	29-31	Vfl Gummersbach
27/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	33-24	HSG Wetzlar
22/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	32-29	Vfl Gummersbach
27/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	35-28	HSG Wetzlar
20/11/23 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	33-31	Vfl Gummersbach

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	4	4	0	0	144	123	8
2	THW Kiel	4	4	0	0	132	112	8
3	SC Magdeburg	4	4	0	0	138	123	8
4	Fuchse Berlin	4	3	0	1	132	128	6
5	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
6	MT Melsungen	4	2	1	1	125	109	5
7	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	4	2	1	1	116	116	5
8	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	4	2	0	2	123	113	4
9	TBV Lemgo	4	2	0	2	124	130	4
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
11	Vfl Gummersbach	4	1	1	2	121	123	3
12	ThSV Eisenach	4	1	1	2	120	125	3
12	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	124	129	3
14	HC Erlangen	4	1	1	2	120	126	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	4	1	0	3	117	136	2
16	HSV Hamburg	4	0	1	3	119	126	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	4	0	1	3	121	135	1
18	Bergischer HC	4	0	0	4	112	120	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Wetzlar	Vfl Gummersbach
SC Magdeburg	30-38 L	31-33 L
HC Erlangen	29-26 W	26-22 W
Frisch Auf Goppingen	30-31 L	29-29 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vfl Gummersbach (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Wetzlar

WWLWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
07/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
03/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	27-31	L
30/08	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	33-35	L
07/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
04/06	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
23/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
07/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
02/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	33-25	W
26/04	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	33-29	W

Vfl Gummersbach

LDWWLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-33	L
05/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
30/08	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
03/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	35-38	L
23/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	32-22	W
10/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	26-22	W
30/04	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D
23/04	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	26-28	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Wetzlar vs Vfl Gummersbach?

Our model gives 72% to Vfl Gummersbach.

How many points are expected in HSG Wetzlar vs Vfl Gummersbach?

The model estimates 60.9 total points (HSG Wetzlar 29.6 · Vfl Gummersbach 31.3).