Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 10/09, 19:00

Prediction: TBV Lemgo vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Team pages: TBV Lemgo · SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Prediction summary

Estimated points

66.1Total

TBV Lemgo32.6

SG Flensburg-Handewitt33.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

43% 57%

TBV Lemgo SG Flensburg-Handewitt

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

TBV Lemgo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWWLWW

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLWWW

Head-to-head

TBV Lemgo 2–4 SG Flensburg-Handewitt (6 last)

TBV Lemgo32-34SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt38-30TBV Lemgo
TBV Lemgo34-33SG Flensburg-Handewitt
TBV Lemgo34-29SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt36-27TBV Lemgo
SG Flensburg-Handewitt34-29TBV Lemgo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TBV Lemgo 1531 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1574

	TBV Lemgo	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Our model	54%	46%
Market	32%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 66.1 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points66.1TBV Lemgo 32.6 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33.5

Match keys

H2H favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TBV Lemgo	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.7 / 31.8	35.6 / 32.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.6 / 30	35.8 / 33.4
Est. result	33	34

Est. total66.1

Line O/U63.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.00

X8.50

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.88

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.80

Under 63.51.95

Diff.: 2.45 · Est. total: 65.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	9.00 → 8.50▼	Bet365 8.50
2	1.42 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:19 +29’	4.00	9.00	1.42
13:36 +12’	3.00▼	8.50▼	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TBV Lemgo 2–0–4 SG Flensburg-Handewitt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Club Friendlies	TBV Lemgo	32-34	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
09/05/26 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	38-30	TBV Lemgo
04/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	34-33	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
29/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	34-29	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
23/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	36-27	TBV Lemgo
19/12/23 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	34-29	TBV Lemgo

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	3	3	0	0	103	86	6
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	3	3	0	0	105	93	6
3	SC Magdeburg	3	3	0	0	100	93	6
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	3	2	1	0	90	87	5
5	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	3	2	0	1	96	84	4
6	TBV Lemgo	3	2	0	1	94	91	4
7	Fuchse Berlin	3	2	0	1	99	100	4
8	MT Melsungen	3	1	1	1	93	82	3
9	Vfl Gummersbach	3	1	1	1	93	90	3
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	97	97	3
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	3	1	0	2	84	89	2
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	3	1	0	2	81	93	2
13	SG BBM Bietigheim	3	1	0	2	92	105	2
14	HSV Hamburg	3	0	1	2	88	94	1
14	HSG Wetzlar	3	0	1	2	91	97	1
16	HC Erlangen	3	0	1	2	91	98	1
17	ThSV Eisenach	3	0	1	2	89	100	1
18	Bergischer HC	3	0	0	3	84	91	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TBV Lemgo	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
ThSV Eisenach	38-34 W	33-31 W
Fuchse Berlin	33-34 L	38-43 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: TBV Lemgo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TBV Lemgo

LDLLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-29	W
03/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-27	W
27/08	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	27-35	L
07/06	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	34-31	W
03/06	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
22/05	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	38-34	W
09/05	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
01/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-32	L
26/04	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
12/04	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	33-34	L

SG Flensburg-Handewitt

WWWLLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	38-33	W
02/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W
28/08	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-43	L
04/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	36-31	W
24/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	33-37	L
21/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
09/05	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
24/04	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	40-30	W
11/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TBV Lemgo vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (TBV Lemgo 43% · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 57%).

How many points are expected in TBV Lemgo vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

The model estimates 66.1 total points (TBV Lemgo 32.6 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33.5).