Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 26/09, 18:00

Prediction: THW Kiel vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Team pages: THW Kiel · SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.8Total

THW Kiel32.6

SG Flensburg-Handewitt32.2

1X2

60% 40%

THW Kiel SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Recent form · 10 last

THW Kiel 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWWWW

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

THW Kiel 3–3 SG Flensburg-Handewitt (6 last)

THW Kiel37-33SG Flensburg-Handewitt
THW Kiel36-29SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt30-32THW Kiel
SG Flensburg-Handewitt36-34THW Kiel
SG Flensburg-Handewitt36-33THW Kiel
THW Kiel33-37SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · THW Kiel 1567 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1572

	THW Kiel	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Our model	59%	41%
Market	54%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 64.8 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.8THW Kiel 32.6 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 32.2

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	THW Kiel	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 29.8	35.6 / 32.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32 / 27.8	36.2 / 31.4
Est. result	33	32

Est. total64.8

Line O/U64.5

Diff.0.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.75

X8.00

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.90

Under 64.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · Est. total: 64.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:44 +3’	1.75	8.00	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · THW Kiel 3–0–3 SG Flensburg-Handewitt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	37-33	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
10/03/26 European League	THW Kiel	36-29	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
17/02/26 European League	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	30-32	THW Kiel
11/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	36-34	THW Kiel
22/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	36-33	THW Kiel
17/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	33-37	SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	5	5	0	0	181	157	10
2	THW Kiel	5	5	0	0	160	139	10
3	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
4	SC Magdeburg	5	4	0	1	172	160	8
5	MT Melsungen	5	3	1	1	162	143	7
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	5	3	1	1	147	145	7
7	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
8	Vfl Gummersbach	5	2	1	2	157	156	5
9	HC Erlangen	5	2	1	2	153	154	5
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	ThSV Eisenach	5	1	1	3	147	153	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	5	1	0	4	146	167	2
16	HSV Hamburg	5	0	1	4	153	163	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	5	0	1	4	154	171	1
18	Bergischer HC	5	0	0	5	138	157	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	THW Kiel	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
ThSV Eisenach	28-27 W	33-31 W
TBV Lemgo	35-27 W	39-30 W
Bergischer HC	32-23 W	34-29 W
Fuchse Berlin	28-35 L	38-43 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

THW Kiel

LLWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
12/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W
07/06	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	31-34	L
03/06	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
24/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	32-23	W
10/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L
02/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	25-33	L

SG Flensburg-Handewitt

WLLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
10/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	39-30	W
05/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	38-33	W
02/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W
28/08	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-43	L
04/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	36-31	W
24/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	33-37	L
21/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
09/05	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in THW Kiel vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

Our model gives 60% to THW Kiel.

How many points are expected in THW Kiel vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

The model estimates 64.8 total points (THW Kiel 32.6 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 32.2).