Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: TSV Hannover Burgdorf vs Frisch Auf Goppingen

Team pages: TSV Hannover Burgdorf · Frisch Auf Goppingen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.4Total

TSV Hannover Burgdorf29.5

Frisch Auf Goppingen29.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

66% 34%

TSV Hannover Burgdorf Frisch Auf Goppingen

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 57.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWDWLW

Frisch Auf Goppingen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLLWW

Head-to-head

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 2–4 Frisch Auf Goppingen (6 last)

TSV Hannover Burgdorf22-28Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen30-26TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf30-36Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen31-33TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf33-26Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen32-25TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 1506 · Frisch Auf Goppingen 1560

	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	Frisch Auf Goppingen
Our model	52%	48%
Market	67%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 59.4 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +1.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.4TSV Hannover Burgdorf 29.5 · Frisch Auf Goppingen 29.9

Over / Under 57.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~59.2 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours Frisch Auf Goppingen: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	Frisch Auf Goppingen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 29.9	29.6 / 30.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.4 / 29	28.4 / 30.4
Est. result	30	30

Est. total59.4

Line O/U57.5

Diff.1.9

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.40

X9.00

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.80

2 (+2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.88

Under 57.51.88

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 59.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	10.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
2	6.00 → 4.25▼	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:38 +10’	1.27	10.00	6.00
13:07 +9’	1.40▲	9.00▼	4.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 2–0–4 Frisch Auf Goppingen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	22-28	Frisch Auf Goppingen
04/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	30-26	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
06/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	30-36	Frisch Auf Goppingen
27/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	31-33	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
26/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	33-26	Frisch Auf Goppingen
17/11/23 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	32-25	TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	5	5	0	0	181	157	10
2	THW Kiel	5	5	0	0	160	139	10
3	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
4	SC Magdeburg	5	4	0	1	172	160	8
5	MT Melsungen	5	3	1	1	162	143	7
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	5	3	1	1	147	145	7
7	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
8	Vfl Gummersbach	5	2	1	2	157	156	5
9	HC Erlangen	5	2	1	2	153	154	5
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	ThSV Eisenach	5	1	1	3	147	153	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	5	1	0	4	146	167	2
16	HSV Hamburg	5	0	1	4	153	163	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	5	0	1	4	154	171	1
18	Bergischer HC	5	0	0	5	138	157	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	Frisch Auf Goppingen
THW Kiel	26-29 L	31-32 L
HSV Hamburg	30-28 W	32-31 W
HC Erlangen	28-28 D	32-30 W
Rhein Neckar Lowen	32-31 W	29-28 W
MT Melsungen	32-32 D	18-31 L
Bergischer HC	29-30 L	28-29 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Hannover Burgdorf

LWDLDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	31-29	W
12/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
05/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
02/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
30/08	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
07/06	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
03/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
21/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
08/05	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
02/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L

Frisch Auf Goppingen

DWWLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
13/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
06/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
02/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	18-31	L
29/08	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-30	W
07/06	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
03/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
25/05	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	34-28	W
07/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
30/04	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Hannover Burgdorf vs Frisch Auf Goppingen?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (TSV Hannover Burgdorf 66% · Frisch Auf Goppingen 34%).

How many points are expected in TSV Hannover Burgdorf vs Frisch Auf Goppingen?

The model estimates 59.4 total points (TSV Hannover Burgdorf 29.5 · Frisch Auf Goppingen 29.9).

Over or under 57.5 points?

Recent history points to over 57.5 points (65%).