Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 27/09, 16:30

Prediction: Vfl Gummersbach vs Bergischer HC

Team pages: Vfl Gummersbach · Bergischer HC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.2Total

Vfl Gummersbach31.7

Bergischer HC28.5

1X2

83% 17%

Vfl Gummersbach Bergischer HC

Recent form · 10 last

Vfl Gummersbach 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWDLW

Bergischer HC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Vfl Gummersbach 5–1–0 Bergischer HC (6 last)

Bergischer HC30-32Vfl Gummersbach
Bergischer HC30-39Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach29-29Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC27-32Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach29-24Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC32-36Vfl Gummersbach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vfl Gummersbach 1550 · Bergischer HC 1440

	Vfl Gummersbach	Bergischer HC
Our model	74%	26%
Market	83%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 60.2 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -2.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.2Vfl Gummersbach 31.7 · Bergischer HC 28.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vfl Gummersbach (rating 1550 vs 1440).
Vfl Gummersbach is a clear favourite (83% market).
H2H favours Vfl Gummersbach: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vfl Gummersbach	Bergischer HC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 29.4	28 / 30
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.4 / 31.2	27.6 / 31.4
Est. result	32	29

Est. total60.2

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.14

X14.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.88

2 (+5.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 3.45 · Est. total: 59.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +5’	1.14	14.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vfl Gummersbach 5–1–0 Bergischer HC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Club Friendlies	Bergischer HC	30-32	Vfl Gummersbach
02/04/26 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	30-39	Vfl Gummersbach
05/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	29-29	Bergischer HC
01/08/25 Club Friendlies	Bergischer HC	27-32	Vfl Gummersbach
14/11/24 Germany DHB Pokal	Vfl Gummersbach	29-24	Bergischer HC
02/08/24 Club Friendlies	Bergischer HC	32-36	Vfl Gummersbach

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	5	5	0	0	181	157	10
2	THW Kiel	5	5	0	0	160	139	10
3	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
4	SC Magdeburg	5	4	0	1	172	160	8
5	MT Melsungen	5	3	1	1	162	143	7
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	5	3	1	1	147	145	7
7	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
8	Vfl Gummersbach	5	2	1	2	157	156	5
9	HC Erlangen	5	2	1	2	153	154	5
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	ThSV Eisenach	5	1	1	3	147	153	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	5	1	0	4	146	167	2
16	HSV Hamburg	5	0	1	4	153	163	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	5	0	1	4	154	171	1
18	Bergischer HC	5	0	0	5	138	157	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vfl Gummersbach	Bergischer HC
Fuchse Berlin	28-33 L	26-37 L
Rhein Neckar Lowen	31-26 W	26-27 L
TSV GWD Minden	32-22 W	28-28 D
HC Erlangen	26-22 W	28-29 L
Frisch Auf Goppingen	29-29 D	29-28 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vfl Gummersbach (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vfl Gummersbach

DWWLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
13/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-33	L
05/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
30/08	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
03/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	35-38	L
23/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	32-22	W
10/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	26-22	W
30/04	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D

Bergischer HC

WDLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	26-37	L
13/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
05/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	26-27	L
02/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	29-34	L
28/08	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
07/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
29/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
24/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	23-32	L
08/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
02/05	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-29	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vfl Gummersbach vs Bergischer HC?

Our model gives 83% to Vfl Gummersbach.

How many points are expected in Vfl Gummersbach vs Bergischer HC?

The model estimates 60.2 total points (Vfl Gummersbach 31.7 · Bergischer HC 28.5).