Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Rhein Neckar Lowen vs MT Melsungen

Team pages: Rhein Neckar Lowen · MT Melsungen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.4Total

Rhein Neckar Lowen29.1

MT Melsungen29.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

45% 55%

Rhein Neckar Lowen MT Melsungen

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Rhein Neckar Lowen 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLWWL

MT Melsungen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWDWW

Head-to-head

Rhein Neckar Lowen 3–1–2 MT Melsungen (6 last)

MT Melsungen29-29Rhein Neckar Lowen
Rhein Neckar Lowen30-22MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen27-29Rhein Neckar Lowen
MT Melsungen25-22Rhein Neckar Lowen
Rhein Neckar Lowen31-26MT Melsungen
Rhein Neckar Lowen23-28MT Melsungen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rhein Neckar Lowen 1522 · MT Melsungen 1572

	Rhein Neckar Lowen	MT Melsungen
Our model	53%	47%
Market	35%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 58.4 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.4Rhein Neckar Lowen 29.1 · MT Melsungen 29.4

Match keys

H2H favours Rhein Neckar Lowen: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Rhein Neckar Lowen	MT Melsungen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.9 / 28.2	31.4 / 30.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 29	32.4 / 28.6
Est. result	29	29

Est. total58.4

Line O/U57.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.70

X7.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 57.52.00

Under 57.51.78

Diff.: 2 · Est. total: 59.5

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	2.25 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:40 +9’	2.05	7.50	2.25
10:49 +2’	2.15▲	7.50	2.15▼
11:38 +15’	2.05▼	7.50	2.25▲
12:43 +10’	2.15▲	7.50	2.15▼
16:50 +15’	2.70▲	7.50	1.80▼
17:30 +28’	2.15▼	7.50	2.15▲
19:10 +3’	2.70▲	7.50	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhein Neckar Lowen 3–1–2 MT Melsungen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 Germany DHB Pokal	MT Melsungen	29-29	Rhein Neckar Lowen
01/05/26 Germany Bundesliga	Rhein Neckar Lowen	30-22	MT Melsungen
29/08/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	27-29	Rhein Neckar Lowen
04/05/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	25-22	Rhein Neckar Lowen
21/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	Rhein Neckar Lowen	31-26	MT Melsungen
18/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	Rhein Neckar Lowen	23-28	MT Melsungen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	5	5	0	0	181	157	10
2	THW Kiel	5	5	0	0	160	139	10
3	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
4	SC Magdeburg	5	4	0	1	172	160	8
5	MT Melsungen	5	3	1	1	162	143	7
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	5	3	1	1	147	145	7
7	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
8	Vfl Gummersbach	5	2	1	2	157	156	5
9	HC Erlangen	5	2	1	2	153	154	5
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	ThSV Eisenach	5	1	1	3	147	153	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	5	1	0	4	146	167	2
16	HSV Hamburg	5	0	1	4	153	163	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	5	0	1	4	154	171	1
18	Bergischer HC	5	0	0	5	138	157	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rhein Neckar Lowen	MT Melsungen
Frisch Auf Goppingen	28-29 L	31-18 W
Vfl Gummersbach	26-31 L	31-31 D
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	31-32 L	32-32 D
SC Magdeburg	30-33 L	37-34 W
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	32-26 W	32-27 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MT Melsungen (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rhein Neckar Lowen

WWLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
11/09	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	29-27	W
05/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	27-26	W
02/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	26-31	L
30/08	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
07/06	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	27-28	L
03/06	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
24/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-33	L
07/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
01/05	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	30-22	W

MT Melsungen

LWWLDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
13/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-27	W
05/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-18	W
27/08	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
04/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-39	L
21/05	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	33-27	W
09/05	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
01/05	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	22-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rhein Neckar Lowen vs MT Melsungen?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Rhein Neckar Lowen 45% · MT Melsungen 55%).

How many points are expected in Rhein Neckar Lowen vs MT Melsungen?

The model estimates 58.4 total points (Rhein Neckar Lowen 29.1 · MT Melsungen 29.4).