Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 27/09, 18:00

Prediction: HSV Hamburg vs HSG Wetzlar

Team pages: HSV Hamburg · HSG Wetzlar

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.9Total

HSV Hamburg32.2

HSG Wetzlar31.7

1X2

64% 36%

HSV Hamburg HSG Wetzlar

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hamburg 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDLLL

HSG Wetzlar 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLDLL

Head-to-head

HSV Hamburg 5–1 HSG Wetzlar (6 last)

HSV Hamburg33-32HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar25-35HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg33-29HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar31-26HSV Hamburg
HSG Wetzlar25-27HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg30-25HSG Wetzlar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hamburg 1501 · HSG Wetzlar 1471

	HSV Hamburg	HSG Wetzlar
Our model	64%	36%
Market	57%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 63.9 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · +2.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.9HSV Hamburg 32.2 · HSG Wetzlar 31.7

Match keys

H2H favours HSV Hamburg: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSV Hamburg	HSG Wetzlar
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.3 / 32.9	30.8 / 31.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.6 / 32.6	30.8 / 34.2
Est. result	32	32

Est. total63.9

Line O/U61.5

Diff.2.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.65

X8.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 1.85 · Est. total: 63.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:48 +2’	1.65	8.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hamburg 5–0–1 HSG Wetzlar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	33-32	HSG Wetzlar
12/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	25-35	HSV Hamburg
05/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	33-29	HSG Wetzlar
17/10/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	31-26	HSV Hamburg
23/03/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	25-27	HSV Hamburg
24/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	30-25	HSG Wetzlar

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	5	5	0	0	181	157	10
2	THW Kiel	5	5	0	0	160	139	10
3	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
4	SC Magdeburg	5	4	0	1	172	160	8
5	MT Melsungen	5	3	1	1	162	143	7
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	5	3	1	1	147	145	7
7	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
8	Vfl Gummersbach	5	2	1	2	157	156	5
9	HC Erlangen	5	2	1	2	153	154	5
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	ThSV Eisenach	5	1	1	3	147	153	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	5	1	0	4	146	167	2
16	HSV Hamburg	5	0	1	4	153	163	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	5	0	1	4	154	171	1
18	Bergischer HC	5	0	0	5	138	157	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hamburg	HSG Wetzlar
Frisch Auf Goppingen	31-32 L	30-31 L
ThSV Eisenach	40-33 W	31-31 D
SC Magdeburg	28-41 L	30-38 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hamburg

WLLWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L
13/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
05/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
02/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W
04/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
25/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-34	L
10/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-41	L
03/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W

HSG Wetzlar

WLWLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	33-36	L
13/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
07/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
03/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	27-31	L
30/08	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	33-35	L
07/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
04/06	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
23/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
07/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
02/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	33-25	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hamburg vs HSG Wetzlar?

Our model gives 64% to HSV Hamburg.

How many points are expected in HSV Hamburg vs HSG Wetzlar?

The model estimates 63.9 total points (HSV Hamburg 32.2 · HSG Wetzlar 31.7).