Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 28/09, 19:30

Prediction: HC Erlangen vs ThSV Eisenach

Team pages: HC Erlangen · ThSV Eisenach

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.4Total

HC Erlangen30.1

ThSV Eisenach29.3

1X2

68% 32%

HC Erlangen ThSV Eisenach

Recent form · 10 last

HC Erlangen 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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ThSV Eisenach 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

HC Erlangen 2–2–2 ThSV Eisenach (6 last)

ThSV Eisenach25-25HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen24-23ThSV Eisenach
ThSV Eisenach26-26HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen24-28ThSV Eisenach
ThSV Eisenach28-26HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen28-23ThSV Eisenach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Erlangen 1501 · ThSV Eisenach 1414

	HC Erlangen	ThSV Eisenach
Our model	71%	29%
Market	59%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 59.4 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.4HC Erlangen 30.1 · ThSV Eisenach 29.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HC Erlangen (rating 1501 vs 1414).
HC Erlangen is a clear favourite (68% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Erlangen	ThSV Eisenach
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.3 / 29.3	31.7 / 34.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.6 / 30.8	29.4 / 30.6
Est. result	30	29

Est. total59.4

Line O/U58.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.60

X8.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 2.9 · Est. total: 61.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:23 +28’	1.60	8.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Erlangen 2–2–2 ThSV Eisenach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	ThSV Eisenach	25-25	HC Erlangen
08/11/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	24-23	ThSV Eisenach
17/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	ThSV Eisenach	26-26	HC Erlangen
13/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	24-28	ThSV Eisenach
23/12/23 Germany Bundesliga	ThSV Eisenach	28-26	HC Erlangen
23/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	28-23	ThSV Eisenach

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	5	5	0	0	181	157	10
2	THW Kiel	5	5	0	0	160	139	10
3	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
4	SC Magdeburg	5	4	0	1	172	160	8
5	MT Melsungen	5	3	1	1	162	143	7
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	5	3	1	1	147	145	7
7	Frisch Auf Goppingen	5	3	0	2	142	152	6
8	Vfl Gummersbach	5	2	1	2	157	156	5
9	HC Erlangen	5	2	1	2	153	154	5
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	ThSV Eisenach	5	1	1	3	147	153	3
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	5	1	0	4	146	167	2
16	HSV Hamburg	5	0	1	4	153	163	1
17	HSG Wetzlar	5	0	1	4	154	171	1
18	Bergischer HC	5	0	0	5	138	157	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Erlangen	ThSV Eisenach
TBV Lemgo	33-28 W	34-38 L
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	33-38 L	31-33 L
HSG Wetzlar	26-29 L	31-31 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ThSV Eisenach (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Erlangen

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L
30/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L

ThSV Eisenach

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	27-28	L
10/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	31-25	W
07/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
03/09	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	27-36	L
28/08	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	33-40	L
04/06	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-36	L
29/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-41	L
22/05	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	34-38	L
09/05	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Erlangen vs ThSV Eisenach?

Our model gives 68% to HC Erlangen.

How many points are expected in HC Erlangen vs ThSV Eisenach?

The model estimates 59.4 total points (HC Erlangen 30.1 · ThSV Eisenach 29.3).