Handball · Slovenia Prva Liga · 27/09, 17:30

Prediction: RK Celje vs RK Gorenje Velenje

Team pages: RK Celje · RK Gorenje Velenje

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.1Total

RK Celje32.8

RK Gorenje Velenje30.3

1X2

78% 22%

RK Celje RK Gorenje Velenje

Recent form · 10 last

RK Celje 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWLW

RK Gorenje Velenje 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDLWWL

Head-to-head

RK Celje 4–2 RK Gorenje Velenje (6 last)

RK Gorenje Velenje25-30RK Celje
RK Celje32-22RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Celje24-30RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Gorenje Velenje35-32RK Celje
RK Celje32-29RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Gorenje Velenje24-27RK Celje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RK Celje 1528 · RK Gorenje Velenje 1492

	RK Celje	RK Gorenje Velenje
Our model	65%	35%
Market	80%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 63.1 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +4.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.1RK Celje 32.8 · RK Gorenje Velenje 30.3

Match keys

RK Celje is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours RK Celje: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	RK Celje	RK Gorenje Velenje
Points F\|A (Last 10)	36.9 / 34.4	26.9 / 29
Points F\|A (Last 5)	36.2 / 33	27.8 / 27.6
Est. result	33	30

Est. total63.1

Line O/U58.5

Diff.4.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.13

X12.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.75

2 (+5.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.85

Under 58.51.85

Diff.: 5.1 · Est. total: 63.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.13▼	Bet365 1.13
X	11.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00
2	5.50 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +28’	1.18	11.00	5.50
13:12 +4’	1.13▼	12.00▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RK Celje 4–0–2 RK Gorenje Velenje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	25-30	RK Celje
25/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Celje	32-22	RK Gorenje Velenje
24/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Celje	24-30	RK Gorenje Velenje
21/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	35-32	RK Celje
17/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Celje	32-29	RK Gorenje Velenje
05/04/25 Slovenia Cup	RK Gorenje Velenje	24-27	RK Celje

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RK Trimo Trebnje	4	3	1	0	137	119	7
2	MRK Krka	4	3	1	0	130	116	7
3	RK Celje	4	3	0	1	140	126	6
4	RD Loka	4	3	0	1	127	114	6
5	RD Slovan	4	3	0	1	133	106	6
6	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011	4	2	1	1	119	111	5
7	RK Ormoz	4	2	1	1	123	120	5
8	RK Gorenje Velenje	4	2	0	2	114	113	4
9	SD Skofljica	4	1	0	3	115	134	2
10	RD Ribnica	4	0	0	4	106	132	0
11	RK Svis	4	0	0	4	105	131	0
12	RK Ajdovscina	4	0	0	4	114	141	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RK Celje	RK Gorenje Velenje
RD Slovan	34-33 W	25-35 L
RK Slovenj Gradec 2011	37-35 W	27-30 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RK Celje (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RK Celje

LWLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	34-33	W
13/09	RK Trimo Trebnje Slovenia Prva Liga	31-39	L
05/09	SD Skofljica Slovenia Prva Liga	40-33	W
02/09	RK Svis Slovenia Prva Liga	35-21	W
31/05	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	41-39	W
27/05	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	42-38	W
23/05	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	37-35	W
09/05	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	30-31	L
06/05	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	41-36	W
29/04	RK Trimo Trebnje Slovenia Prva Liga	38-39	L

RK Gorenje Velenje

LDLLDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	27-30	L
16/09	RD Ribnica Slovenia Prva Liga	29-28	W
05/09	RK Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	35-27	W
02/09	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	23-28	L
23/05	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	25-25	D
09/05	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	29-29	D
29/04	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	25-35	L
24/04	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	29-34	L
11/04	RD Loka Slovenia Prva Liga	28-28	D
03/04	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	19-26	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RK Celje vs RK Gorenje Velenje?

Our model gives 78% to RK Celje.

How many points are expected in RK Celje vs RK Gorenje Velenje?

The model estimates 63.1 total points (RK Celje 32.8 · RK Gorenje Velenje 30.3).