Handball · Slovenia Prva Liga · 03/10, 18:00

Prediction: RK Gorenje Velenje vs RK Svis

Team pages: RK Gorenje Velenje · RK Svis

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56Total

RK Gorenje Velenje28.8

RK Svis27.2

1X2

82% 18%

RK Gorenje Velenje RK Svis

Markets

Over 55.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

RK Gorenje Velenje 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWWLW

RK Svis 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

RK Gorenje Velenje 5–1–0 RK Svis (6 last)

RK Svis23-24RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Gorenje Velenje27-27RK Svis
RK Gorenje Velenje28-24RK Svis
RK Svis25-33RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Svis24-28RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Svis26-36RK Gorenje Velenje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RK Gorenje Velenje 1537 · RK Svis 1445

	RK Gorenje Velenje	RK Svis
Our model	72%	28%
Market	82%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 56 points · Bet365 line 55.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56RK Gorenje Velenje 28.8 · RK Svis 27.2

Over / Under 55.5Over · 75%recent trend · ~57.5 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RK Gorenje Velenje (rating 1537 vs 1445).
RK Gorenje Velenje is a clear favourite (82% market).
H2H favours RK Gorenje Velenje: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	RK Gorenje Velenje	RK Svis
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.9 / 29.2	27.6 / 29.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.6 / 28.2	26 / 33
Est. result	29	27

Est. total56

Line O/U55.5

Diff.0.5

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.10

X13.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.85

2 (+6.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 55.51.85

Under 55.51.85

Diff.: 1.8 · Est. total: 57.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:49 +13’	1.10	13.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RK Gorenje Velenje 5–1–0 RK Svis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Svis	23-24	RK Gorenje Velenje
14/09/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	27-27	RK Svis
21/02/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	28-24	RK Svis
18/12/24 Slovenia Cup	RK Svis	25-33	RK Gorenje Velenje
26/10/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Svis	24-28	RK Gorenje Velenje
17/02/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Svis	26-36	RK Gorenje Velenje

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RK Trimo Trebnje	5	4	1	0	174	146	9
2	RD Slovan	5	4	0	1	167	131	8
3	MRK Krka	5	3	2	0	159	145	8
4	RD Loka	5	3	1	1	155	142	7
5	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011	5	2	2	1	147	139	6
6	RK Gorenje Velenje	5	3	0	2	143	141	6
7	RK Ormoz	5	2	2	1	151	148	6
8	RK Celje	5	3	0	2	168	155	6
9	SD Skofljica	5	1	0	4	142	171	2
10	RD Ribnica	5	0	1	4	135	161	1
11	RK Ajdovscina	5	0	1	4	142	169	1
12	RK Svis	5	0	0	5	130	165	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RK Gorenje Velenje	RK Svis
RK Celje	29-28 W	21-35 L
RD Ribnica	29-28 W	26-27 L
RD Slovan	25-35 L	25-34 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: RK Gorenje Velenje (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RK Gorenje Velenje

DLLDDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	RK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	29-28	W
20/09	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	27-30	L
16/09	RD Ribnica Slovenia Prva Liga	29-28	W
05/09	RK Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	35-27	W
02/09	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	23-28	L
23/05	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	25-25	D
09/05	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	29-29	D
29/04	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	25-35	L
24/04	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	29-34	L
11/04	RD Loka Slovenia Prva Liga	28-28	D

RK Svis

WLLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	RD Slovan Slovenia Prva Liga	25-34	L
19/09	RK Trimo Trebnje Slovenia Prva Liga	28-32	L
12/09	SD Skofljica Slovenia Prva Liga	26-31	L
05/09	RK Ormoz Slovenia Prva Liga	30-33	L
02/09	RK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	21-35	L
30/05	SD RK Mokerc IG Slovenia Prva Liga	32-22	W
23/05	RK Frankstahl Radovljica Slovenia Prva Liga	27-27	D
09/05	SD Skofljica Slovenia Prva Liga	28-31	L
25/04	RD Ribnica Slovenia Prva Liga	26-27	L
11/04	RK Frankstahl Radovljica Slovenia Prva Liga	33-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RK Gorenje Velenje vs RK Svis?

Our model gives 82% to RK Gorenje Velenje.

How many points are expected in RK Gorenje Velenje vs RK Svis?

The model estimates 56 total points (RK Gorenje Velenje 28.8 · RK Svis 27.2).

Over or under 55.5 points?

Recent history points to over 55.5 points (75%).