Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 11/11, 17:30

Prediction: FK Babrungas vs FK Minija

Team pages: FK Babrungas · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

FK Babrungas1.29

FK Minija1.55

1X2

31% 26% 43%

FK Babrungas Draw FK Minija

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Babrungas 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWDW

FK Minija 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLLWDW

Head-to-head

FK Babrungas 5–1–0 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija2-3FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-4FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas0-0FK Minija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Babrungas 1585 · FK Minija 1539

	FK Babrungas	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1585 vs 1539).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Babrungas	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.70

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 17:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.12 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.20 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.15

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:38 +23’	2.55	3.60	2.20
05:55 +6’	2.80▲	3.60	2.05▼
06:56 +5’	2.63▼	3.60	2.20▲
11:37 +25’	2.75▲	3.60	2.10▼
12:53 +8’	2.75	3.80▲	2.05▼
13:54 +6’	2.70▼	3.75▼	2.10▲
17:01	2.80▲	3.70▼	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:59 +2’	2.93	3.18	2.16
12:01 +1’	2.95▲	3.13▼	2.18▲
15:54 +6’	3.00▲	3.13	2.21▲
17:00 +1’	3.12▲	3.13	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Babrungas 5–1–0 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/10/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-3 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
29/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Minija
22/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
08/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
14/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-4 HT 0-3	FK Babrungas
26/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	30	23	5	2	57	15	74
2	FK Minija	30	24	2	4	79	22	74
3	FK BE1	30	18	5	7	52	32	59
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	30	16	5	9	48	39	53
5	FK Tauras	30	15	6	9	56	42	51
6	BFA Vilnius	30	15	5	10	47	42	50
7	DFK Dainava	30	13	9	8	45	30	48
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	30	14	3	13	34	38	45
9	FK Atmosfera	30	11	8	11	49	39	41
10	FK Garliava	30	9	6	15	37	37	33
11	Lietava Jonava	30	8	8	14	34	41	32
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	30	10	1	19	29	49	31
13	FK Transinvest II	30	8	5	17	39	67	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	30	7	4	19	34	68	25
15	FK Ekranas	30	5	3	22	30	68	18
16	FK Siauliai II	30	4	5	21	32	73	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Babrungas	FK Minija
FK Siauliai II	4-1 W	2-1 W
FK Atmosfera	3-2 W	3-1 W
BFA Vilnius	1-2 L	1-2 L
FK Garliava	1-0 W	2-0 W
FK Tauras	1-1 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Babrungas

DWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
30/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	13	3	D
25/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
17/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D

FK Minija

WWWWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
04/11	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-3	9	2	D
31/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
24/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
17/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	4	7	L
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Babrungas vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (43%). Probabilities: FK Babrungas 31%, draw 26%, FK Minija 43%.

How many goals are expected in FK Babrungas vs FK Minija?

The model expects 2.84 goals (FK Babrungas 1.29 · FK Minija 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Babrungas vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.