Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Babrungas vs FK Siauliai II

Team pages: FK Babrungas · FK Siauliai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

FK Babrungas2.98

FK Siauliai II0.98

1X2

80% 12% 7%

FK Babrungas Draw FK Siauliai II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Babrungas 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWWD

FK Siauliai II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDLLL

Head-to-head

FK Babrungas 5–1 FK Siauliai II (6 last)

FK Siauliai II0-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-5FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-1FK Babrungas
FK Siauliai II0-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas3-2FK Siauliai II
FK Babrungas3-0FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Babrungas 1585 · FK Siauliai II 1428

	FK Babrungas	Draw	FK Siauliai II
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	83%	11%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1585 vs 1428).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Babrungas	FK Siauliai II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.7 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.9	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.10

X8.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.90

2 (+2.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +8’	1.10	8.50	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Babrungas 5–0–1 FK Siauliai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
09/11/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-5 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai II
27/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
16/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
22/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-2 HT 3-1	FK Siauliai II
08/11/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	29	23	2	4	77	22	71
3	FK BE1	29	18	5	6	51	30	59
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	FK Tauras	29	14	6	9	53	41	48
6	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
7	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	29	10	8	11	45	39	38
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Babrungas	FK Siauliai II
FK BE1	1-1 D	0-2 L
FC Hegelmann II	4-0 W	1-5 L
FK Minija	3-2 W	1-2 L
Lietava Jonava	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-0 W	1-4 L
FK Garliava	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Babrungas

WDWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	13	3	D
25/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
17/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W

FK Siauliai II

LWLLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
26/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	5	3	L
17/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	10	6	L
09/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-3	1	3	D
19/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	6-2	7	9	W
14/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-5	3	2	L
28/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
21/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Babrungas vs FK Siauliai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Babrungas win (80%). Probabilities: FK Babrungas 80%, draw 12%, FK Siauliai II 7%.

How many goals are expected in FK Babrungas vs FK Siauliai II?

The model expects 3.96 goals (FK Babrungas 2.98 · FK Siauliai II 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Babrungas vs FK Siauliai II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.