Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Team pages: BFA Vilnius · FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

BFA Vilnius1.72

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.11

1X2

51% 24% 24%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLLWD

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDLWW

Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 4–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (6 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-1BFA Vilnius
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-2BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius2-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-1BFA Vilnius
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-5BFA Vilnius
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-0BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1532 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1513

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	50%	26%	23%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	3.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:26 +4’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 4–0–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-1 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
02/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 HT 0-1	BFA Vilnius
28/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
26/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius
29/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-5 HT 0-1	BFA Vilnius
21/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
6	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
7	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FC Hegelmann II	1-1 D	3-0 W
FK Minija	2-1 W	0-5 L
Lietava Jonava	0-3 L	2-1 W
FK Garliava	3-2 W	3-2 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 W	2-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFA Vilnius

DWDWWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
16/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
09/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
19/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

WWLWWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
25/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
09/10	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-3	8	3	D
02/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
19/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
12/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
04/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BFA Vilnius win (51%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 51%, draw 24%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 24%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 2.83 goals (BFA Vilnius 1.72 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.11), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.