Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Garliava

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Garliava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

FK Minija2.61

FK Garliava0.75

1X2

77% 15% 8%

FK Minija Draw FK Garliava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWD

FK Garliava 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDWLD

Head-to-head

FK Minija 1–2–3 FK Garliava (6 last)

FK Garliava0-1FK Minija
FK Garliava4-2FK Minija
FK Minija0-0FK Garliava
FK Garliava2-0FK Minija
FK Minija1-1FK Garliava
FK Minija0-1FK Garliava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1567 · FK Garliava 1436

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Garliava
Our model	77%	16%	8%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1567 vs 1436).
H2H favours FK Garliava: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Garliava
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 7.1	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +37’	1.18	6.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 1–2–3 FK Garliava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Minija
31/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	4-2 HT 2-0	FK Minija
06/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
30/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
13/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Garliava
03/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Garliava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
6	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
7	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Garliava
FK Atmosfera	3-1 W	0-0 D
BFA Vilnius	1-2 L	2-3 L
FK Babrungas	2-3 L	0-1 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	5-0 W	2-3 L
DFK Dainava	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	3-3 D
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	3-2 W
FK Ekranas	5-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

WWWWWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-3	9	2	D
31/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
24/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
17/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	4	7	L
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W

FK Garliava

LLLLLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-2	3-3	4	5	D
23/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
17/10	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
10/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
12/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	4	3	L
05/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
29/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Garliava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (77%). Probabilities: FK Minija 77%, draw 15%, FK Garliava 8%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Garliava?

The model expects 3.36 goals (FK Minija 2.61 · FK Garliava 0.75), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Garliava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.