Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: FK Neptunas Klaipeda · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.23

DFK Dainava1.22

1X2

37% 27% 36%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLL

DFK Dainava 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDWLW

Head-to-head

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1–2 DFK Dainava (3 last)

DFK Dainava1-0FK Neptunas Klaipeda
DFK Dainava3-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda3-0DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1417 · DFK Dainava 1496

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	38%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1417 vs 1496).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.70

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +35’	2.35	3.70	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1–0–2 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
02/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
29/04/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	3-0 HT 1-0	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	29	23	2	4	77	22	71
3	FK BE1	29	18	5	6	51	30	59
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	FK Tauras	29	14	6	9	53	41	48
6	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
7	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	29	10	8	11	45	39	38
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	DFK Dainava
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Ekranas	0-2 L	3-1 W
FK BE1	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Hegelmann II	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK Minija	1-2 L	0-3 L
Lietava Jonava	2-0 W	0-0 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

LLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
24/10	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	16	5	L
16/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
10/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
19/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
11/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L

DFK Dainava

DLDLWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
25/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
16/10	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
09/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
02/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
18/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (37%). Probabilities: FK Neptunas Klaipeda 37%, draw 27%, DFK Dainava 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 2.45 goals (FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.23 · DFK Dainava 1.22), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.