Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Atmosfera vs FK Ekranas

Team pages: FK Atmosfera · FK Ekranas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

FK Atmosfera2.26

FK Ekranas1.25

1X2

60% 21% 20%

FK Atmosfera Draw FK Ekranas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atmosfera 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLDDWWLD

FK Ekranas 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDLWL

Head-to-head

FK Atmosfera 4–2 FK Ekranas (6 last)

FK Ekranas1-2FK Atmosfera
FK Ekranas0-3FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera5-0FK Ekranas
FK Atmosfera0-1FK Ekranas
FK Ekranas2-3FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-4FK Ekranas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1517 · FK Ekranas 1416

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	FK Ekranas
Our model	59%	21%	19%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atmosfera (rating 1517 vs 1416).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	FK Ekranas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +47’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 4–0–2 FK Ekranas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	1-2 HT 1-2	FK Atmosfera
01/11/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Atmosfera
21/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	5-0 HT 1-0	FK Ekranas
19/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Ekranas
02/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	2-3 HT 1-2	FK Atmosfera
21/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-4 HT 0-4	FK Ekranas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
6	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
7	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	FK Ekranas
FK BE1	1-1 D	0-5 L
FK Minija	1-3 L	0-5 L
FK Garliava	0-0 D	1-0 W
FK Tauras	3-1 W	1-2 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 L	2-0 W
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Atmosfera (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Atmosfera

DLWLDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
24/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
17/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
10/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
19/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

FK Ekranas

LLLWLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
24/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
10/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-6	6	9	L
12/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
05/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	12	9	W
29/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	3	2	L
21/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	8	2	L
14/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atmosfera vs FK Ekranas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Atmosfera win (60%). Probabilities: FK Atmosfera 60%, draw 21%, FK Ekranas 20%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atmosfera vs FK Ekranas?

The model expects 3.5 goals (FK Atmosfera 2.26 · FK Ekranas 1.25), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atmosfera vs FK Ekranas?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.