Football · Iraq Stars League · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Al Shorta SC vs Al Naft SC

Team pages: Al Shorta SC · Al Naft SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.78Total

Al Shorta SC1.14

Al Naft SC0.64

1X2

48% 31% 21%

Al Shorta SC Draw Al Naft SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shorta SC 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDDWD

Al Naft SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Al Shorta SC 4–2–0 Al Naft SC (6 last)

Al Shorta SC1-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC1-1Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC4-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC0-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC1-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC1-1Al Shorta SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shorta SC 1605 · Al Naft SC 1550

	Al Shorta SC	Draw	Al Naft SC
Our model	47%	34%	19%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.78 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Shorta SC (rating 1605 vs 1550).
H2H favours Al Shorta SC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shorta SC	Al Naft SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.3	0.9 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.42
2	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.86 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +12’	1.80	3.25	4.00
22:52 +7’	1.73▼	3.30▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +59’	1.63	3.36	4.75
10:00 +3’	1.65▲	3.42▲	4.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shorta SC 4–2–0 Al Naft SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
21/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
15/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	4-0 HT 1-0	Al Naft SC
31/10/24 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	0-2 HT 0-2	Al Shorta SC
07/07/24 Iraq Cup	Al Shorta SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
25/04/24 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	13	9	3	1	23	10	30
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Newroz SC	13	6	5	2	15	6	23
4	Al Jolan SC	13	6	5	2	19	12	23
5	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
6	Al Zawra'a	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	13	4	7	2	16	15	19
9	Duhok	13	4	6	3	20	16	18
10	Al Minaa	13	4	5	4	12	13	17
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	13	3	7	3	9	10	16
12	Diyala FC	13	3	5	5	15	18	14
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	13	2	7	4	14	14	13
14	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
15	Zakho	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
16	Al Karkh	13	3	3	7	16	21	12
17	Mosul FC	13	3	3	7	13	21	12
18	Al Kahrabaa	13	2	5	6	9	15	11
19	Naft Maysan	13	1	6	6	8	19	9
20	Karbalaa FC	13	1	4	8	11	25	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Shorta SC	Al Naft SC
Al Talaba	0-0 D	0-0 D
Al Kahrabaa	2-0 W	1-0 W
Al Gharraf	2-1 W	0-0 D
Mosul FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Shorta SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Shorta SC

WWDWDWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	11	1	D
23/10	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
18/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
08/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
12/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
04/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Al Naft SC

DDWLWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
22/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
17/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/10	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
14/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
09/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	0	5	W
31/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
26/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shorta SC vs Al Naft SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Shorta SC win (48%). Probabilities: Al Shorta SC 48%, draw 31%, Al Naft SC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shorta SC vs Al Naft SC?

The model expects 1.78 goals (Al Shorta SC 1.14 · Al Naft SC 0.64), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shorta SC vs Al Naft SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.