Football · Iraq Stars League · 06/11, 14:00

Prediction: Newroz SC vs Karbalaa FC

Team pages: Newroz SC · Karbalaa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Newroz SC1.91

Karbalaa FC0.71

1X2

65% 22% 12%

Newroz SC Draw Karbalaa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Newroz SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWDWWDD

Karbalaa FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLD

Head-to-head

Newroz SC 2–1–0 Karbalaa FC (3 last)

Newroz SC1-0Karbalaa FC
Karbalaa FC0-0Newroz SC
Newroz SC3-0Karbalaa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newroz SC 1560 · Karbalaa FC 1421

	Newroz SC	Draw	Karbalaa FC
Our model	65%	23%	12%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newroz SC (rating 1560 vs 1421).
H2H favours Newroz SC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newroz SC	Karbalaa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 3.6	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.20

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +10’	1.36	4.20	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newroz SC 2–1–0 Karbalaa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Karbalaa FC
21/09/24 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Newroz SC
30/11/23 Iraq League	Newroz SC	3-0 HT 1-0	Karbalaa FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	12	8	3	1	19	9	27
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Al Zawra'a	12	6	3	3	17	9	21
4	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
5	Newroz SC	12	5	5	2	14	6	20
6	Al Jolan SC	12	5	5	2	16	12	20
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	12	4	6	2	14	13	18
9	Al Minaa	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	Duhok	12	3	6	3	19	16	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	12	3	6	3	7	8	15
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	12	2	7	3	14	13	13
13	Diyala FC	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
14	Zakho	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
15	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
16	Mosul FC	12	3	3	6	13	20	12
17	Al Karkh	12	2	3	7	15	21	9
18	Naft Maysan	12	1	6	5	7	15	9
19	Al Kahrabaa	12	1	5	6	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	12	1	4	7	11	24	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newroz SC	Karbalaa FC
Mosul FC	3-0 W	0-3 L
Duhok	0-0 D	2-5 L
Al Talaba	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Newroz SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newroz SC

LDWWWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
24/10	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
16/10	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
09/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	0	W
19/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
14/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
09/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
30/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	9	L

Karbalaa FC

LLWLLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-2	2-2	1	4	D
23/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-5	3	3	L
16/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
10/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
14/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newroz SC vs Karbalaa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newroz SC win (65%). Probabilities: Newroz SC 65%, draw 22%, Karbalaa FC 12%.

How many goals are expected in Newroz SC vs Karbalaa FC?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Newroz SC 1.91 · Karbalaa FC 0.71), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newroz SC vs Karbalaa FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.