Football · Iraq Stars League · 07/11, 16:30

Prediction: Al Zawra'a vs Al Jolan SC

Team pages: Al Zawra'a · Al Jolan SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Al Zawra'a1.53

Al Jolan SC0.96

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Al Zawra'a Draw Al Jolan SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Zawra'a 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Al Jolan SC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDDWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Zawra'a 1511 · Al Jolan SC 1526

	Al Zawra'a	Draw	Al Jolan SC
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Zawra'a	Al Jolan SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 3.8	1.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +7’	1.83	3.20	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	12	8	3	1	19	9	27
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Al Zawra'a	12	6	3	3	17	9	21
4	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
5	Newroz SC	12	5	5	2	14	6	20
6	Al Jolan SC	12	5	5	2	16	12	20
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	12	4	6	2	14	13	18
9	Al Minaa	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	Duhok	12	3	6	3	19	16	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	12	3	6	3	7	8	15
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	12	2	7	3	14	13	13
13	Diyala FC	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
14	Zakho	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
15	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
16	Mosul FC	12	3	3	6	13	20	12
17	Al Karkh	12	2	3	7	15	21	9
18	Naft Maysan	12	1	6	5	7	15	9
19	Al Kahrabaa	12	1	5	6	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	12	1	4	7	11	24	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Zawra'a	Al Jolan SC
Diyala FC	2-0 W	3-3 D
Al Shorta SC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Ghaz Al Shamal	0-1 L	1-0 W
Duhok	0-3 L	2-0 W
Al Gharraf	2-0 W	0-0 D
Al Kahrabaa	1-0 W	2-1 W
Mosul FC	2-2 D	4-2 W
Zakho	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Jolan SC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Zawra'a

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
18/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
17/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
07/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
25/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W

Al Jolan SC

LDWDLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	4-2	7	3	W
23/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
17/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
18/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-2	2-2	0	3	D
14/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
09/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
29/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	3-1	3-3	2	7	D
25/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Zawra'a vs Al Jolan SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Zawra'a win (49%). Probabilities: Al Zawra'a 49%, draw 28%, Al Jolan SC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Al Zawra'a vs Al Jolan SC?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Al Zawra'a 1.53 · Al Jolan SC 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Zawra'a vs Al Jolan SC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.