Football · Iraq Stars League · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh

Team pages: Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Al Karkh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.61

Al Karkh0.92

1X2

52% 28% 20%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Draw Al Karkh

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDWDLD

Al Karkh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWLDDL

Head-to-head

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4–1–1 Al Karkh (6 last)

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Al Karkh
Al Karkh0-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya0-1Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Al Karkh
Al Quwa Al Jawiya3-1Al Karkh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1481 · Al Karkh 1455

	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Draw	Al Karkh
Our model	52%	27%	20%
Market	52%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Al Karkh
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +8’	1.73	3.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4–1–1 Al Karkh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Karkh
15/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
14/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Karkh
30/10/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
05/05/24 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Karkh
01/08/23 Iraq Cup	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	3-1 HT 2-0	Al Karkh

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	12	8	3	1	19	9	27
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Al Zawra'a	12	6	3	3	17	9	21
4	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
5	Newroz SC	12	5	5	2	14	6	20
6	Al Jolan SC	12	5	5	2	16	12	20
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	12	4	6	2	14	13	18
9	Al Minaa	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	Duhok	12	3	6	3	19	16	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	12	3	6	3	7	8	15
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	12	2	7	3	14	13	13
13	Diyala FC	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
14	Zakho	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
15	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
16	Mosul FC	12	3	3	6	13	20	12
17	Al Karkh	12	2	3	7	15	21	9
18	Naft Maysan	12	1	6	5	7	15	9
19	Al Kahrabaa	12	1	5	6	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	12	1	4	7	11	24	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Al Karkh
Al Talaba	0-1 L	2-3 L
Al Karma	0-0 D	2-3 L
Mosul FC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Karbalaa FC	3-2 W	0-1 L
Duhok	1-2 L	3-2 W
Naft Maysan	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Al Quwa Al Jawiya (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

DDLWLDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
22/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
17/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
07/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
19/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
10/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
07/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
03/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
29/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
25/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	4	8	D

Al Karkh

LDLLWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
23/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
18/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-3	5	2	L
17/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
09/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Quwa Al Jawiya win (52%). Probabilities: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 52%, draw 28%, Al Karkh 20%.

How many goals are expected in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.61 · Al Karkh 0.92), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.