Football · Iraq Stars League · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: Erbil SC vs Al Gharraf

Team pages: Erbil SC · Al Gharraf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Erbil SC1.58

Al Gharraf0.81

1X2

55% 26% 18%

Erbil SC Draw Al Gharraf

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Erbil SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWDLLD

Al Gharraf 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLDWDW

Head-to-head

Erbil SC 1–1–0 Al Gharraf (2 last)

Al Gharraf0-0Erbil SC
Erbil SC2-1Al Gharraf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erbil SC 1527 · Al Gharraf 1460

	Erbil SC	Draw	Al Gharraf
Our model	55%	28%	18%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1527 vs 1460).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erbil SC	Al Gharraf
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.61
2	5.50 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +21’	1.53	3.60	5.50
22:44 +4’	1.61▲	3.50▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +33’	1.55	3.55	5.18
14:08 +9’	1.56▲	3.61▲	5.32▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Erbil SC 1–1–0 Al Gharraf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	0-0 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
22/11/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Al Gharraf

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	13	9	3	1	23	10	30
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Newroz SC	13	6	5	2	15	6	23
4	Al Jolan SC	13	6	5	2	19	12	23
5	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
6	Al Zawra'a	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	13	4	7	2	16	15	19
9	Duhok	13	4	6	3	20	16	18
10	Al Minaa	13	4	5	4	12	13	17
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	13	3	7	3	9	10	16
12	Diyala FC	13	3	5	5	15	18	14
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	13	2	7	4	14	14	13
14	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
15	Zakho	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
16	Al Karkh	13	3	3	7	16	21	12
17	Mosul FC	13	3	3	7	13	21	12
18	Al Kahrabaa	13	2	5	6	9	15	11
19	Naft Maysan	13	1	6	6	8	19	9
20	Karbalaa FC	13	1	4	8	11	25	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erbil SC	Al Gharraf
Ghaz Al Shamal	1-1 D	0-1 L
Karbalaa FC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Diyala FC	2-0 W	1-3 L
Al Shorta SC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Al Minaa	2-0 W	0-3 L
Al Karkh	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erbil SC

WWDWLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
22/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
18/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
08/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
14/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
08/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Al Gharraf

LLDLLLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
22/10	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
16/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
17/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	4	0	L
12/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	7	1	L
08/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erbil SC vs Al Gharraf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erbil SC win (55%). Probabilities: Erbil SC 55%, draw 26%, Al Gharraf 18%.

How many goals are expected in Erbil SC vs Al Gharraf?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Erbil SC 1.58 · Al Gharraf 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Erbil SC vs Al Gharraf?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.