Football · Iraq Stars League · 06/11, 16:30

Prediction: Al Karma vs Naft Maysan

Team pages: Al Karma · Naft Maysan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Al Karma1.41

Naft Maysan0.96

1X2

46% 30% 24%

Al Karma Draw Naft Maysan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karma 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWDLW

Naft Maysan 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLDLLD

Head-to-head

Al Karma 1–1–2 Naft Maysan (4 last)

Naft Maysan1-1Al Karma
Al Karma3-0Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan3-2Al Karma
Al Karma1-2Naft Maysan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karma 1577 · Naft Maysan 1443

	Al Karma	Draw	Naft Maysan
Our model	46%	29%	24%
Market	46%	30%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1577 vs 1443).
H2H favours Naft Maysan: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karma	Naft Maysan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	1.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.00

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +5’	1.95	3.00	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karma 1–1–2 Naft Maysan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Karma
21/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	3-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
20/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	3-2 HT 3-2	Al Karma
06/12/24 Iraq League	Al Karma	1-2 HT 1-1	Naft Maysan

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	12	8	3	1	19	9	27
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Al Zawra'a	12	6	3	3	17	9	21
4	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
5	Newroz SC	12	5	5	2	14	6	20
6	Al Jolan SC	12	5	5	2	16	12	20
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	12	4	6	2	14	13	18
9	Al Minaa	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	Duhok	12	3	6	3	19	16	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	12	3	6	3	7	8	15
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	12	2	7	3	14	13	13
13	Diyala FC	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
14	Zakho	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
15	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
16	Mosul FC	12	3	3	6	13	20	12
17	Al Karkh	12	2	3	7	15	21	9
18	Naft Maysan	12	1	6	5	7	15	9
19	Al Kahrabaa	12	1	5	6	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	12	1	4	7	11	24	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karma	Naft Maysan
Al Minaa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0-0 D	1-1 D
Al Karkh	3-2 W	2-3 L
Zakho	1-0 W	0-0 D
Erbil SC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Diyala FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karma

DWWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
24/10	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
17/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
19/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
14/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	6	9	W
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D

Naft Maysan

LDLDWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
16/10	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
08/10	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
17/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-3	2-3	8	2	L
13/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
09/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
04/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
25/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karma vs Naft Maysan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karma win (46%). Probabilities: Al Karma 46%, draw 30%, Naft Maysan 24%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karma vs Naft Maysan?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Al Karma 1.41 · Naft Maysan 0.96), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karma vs Naft Maysan?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.