Football · El Salvador Apertura · 08/11, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs CD Aguila

Team pages: Alianza FC · CD Aguila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Alianza FC1.34

CD Aguila1.39

1X2

35% 28% 38%

Alianza FC Draw CD Aguila

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDDWLL

CD Aguila 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Alianza FC 1–1–4 CD Aguila (6 last)

CD Aguila2-2Alianza FC
Alianza FC0-2CD Aguila
CD Aguila2-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC0-2CD Aguila
CD Aguila0-3Alianza FC
Alianza FC0-1CD Aguila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1457 · CD Aguila 1590

	Alianza FC	Draw	CD Aguila
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Aguila (rating 1457 vs 1590).
H2H favours CD Aguila: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	CD Aguila
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 3.09 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +8’	2.55	3.30	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:40 +36’	3.03	3.11	2.31
14:02 +59’	2.86▼	3.11	2.42▲
15:23 +22’	3.09▲	3.13▲	2.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 1–1–4 CD Aguila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD Aguila	2-2 HT 1-1	Alianza FC
10/05/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	0-2 HT 0-2	CD Aguila
06/05/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	2-1 HT 2-1	Alianza FC
16/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Aguila
19/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	0-3 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
02/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Aguila

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	18	10	6	2	32	13	36
2	CD FAS	18	9	5	4	29	19	32
3	AD Isidro Metapan	19	9	5	5	25	20	32
4	CD Aguila	18	8	6	4	34	24	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Municipal Limeno	19	6	5	8	28	28	23
8	Alianza FC	18	5	8	5	23	24	23
9	Atlético Balboa	18	4	5	9	17	28	17
10	CD INCA Aruba	19	4	5	10	14	33	17
11	CD Cacahuatique	18	3	7	8	19	29	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	19	2	7	10	18	34	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	CD Aguila
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-2 L	0-2 L
Atletico Balboa	0-1 L	2-2 D
AD Isidro Metapan	1-0 W	3-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	4-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-2 D	2-1 W
CD FAS	1-2 L	3-1 W
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-1 W	1-0 W
CD INCA Aruba	1-1 D	3-1 W
Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 3 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

DDWDLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
01/11	Atletico Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
24/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
12/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
09/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D

CD Aguila

DWWLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	2-1	4-3	6	7	W
24/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
18/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
11/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
03/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
30/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
27/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	9	12	L
20/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
12/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	0	W
10/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs CD Aguila?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Aguila win (38%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 35%, draw 28%, CD Aguila 38%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs CD Aguila?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Alianza FC 1.34 · CD Aguila 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs CD Aguila?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.