Football · El Salvador Apertura · 12/11, 22:30

Prediction: CD Aguila vs Municipal Limeno

Team pages: CD Aguila · Municipal Limeno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

CD Aguila2

Municipal Limeno1.27

1X2

53% 24% 23%

CD Aguila Draw Municipal Limeno

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Aguila 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDWWL

Municipal Limeno 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDDDL

Head-to-head

CD Aguila 4–1–1 Municipal Limeno (6 last)

Municipal Limeno0-0CD Aguila
Municipal Limeno2-0CD Aguila
CD Aguila1-0Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno1-2CD Aguila
CD Aguila2-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno0-2CD Aguila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Aguila 1558 · Municipal Limeno 1444

	CD Aguila	Draw	Municipal Limeno
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Aguila (rating 1558 vs 1444).
H2H favours CD Aguila: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Aguila	Municipal Limeno
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +11’	1.70	3.60	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Aguila 4–1–1 Municipal Limeno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	Municipal Limeno	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Aguila
05/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Aguila
08/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	1-0 HT 1-0	Municipal Limeno
19/10/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	1-2 HT 1-0	CD Aguila
17/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	2-1 HT 1-0	Municipal Limeno
03/05/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Aguila

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	19	11	6	2	34	14	39
2	CD FAS	19	9	6	4	31	21	33
3	AD Isidro Metapan	19	9	5	5	25	20	32
4	CD Aguila	19	8	6	5	36	27	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	19	6	9	4	25	18	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
7	Alianza FC	19	6	8	5	26	26	26
8	Municipal Limeno	20	6	5	9	31	32	23
9	Atlético Balboa	19	5	5	9	21	31	20
10	CD Cacahuatique	19	4	7	8	21	29	19
11	CD INCA Aruba	19	4	5	10	14	33	17
12	Fuerte San Francisco	20	2	8	10	20	36	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Aguila	Municipal Limeno
Alianza FC	2-3 L	2-3 L
Fuerte San Francisco	4-3 W	1-1 D
CD FAS	3-1 W	1-3 L
Atlético Balboa	2-2 D	3-4 L
AD Isidro Metapan	3-0 W	1-1 D
CD Cacahuatique	4-1 W	3-3 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-1 W	2-1 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-2 L	2-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-0 W	1-2 L
CD INCA Aruba	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Aguila

WWLWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-3	2-3	8	8	L
01/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	2-1	4-3	6	7	W
24/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
18/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
11/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
03/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
30/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
27/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	9	12	L
20/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
12/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	0	W

Municipal Limeno

LLLLLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	3-1	3-4	5	3	L
05/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
01/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-2	3-3	4	4	D
17/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
11/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
04/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
02/10	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Aguila vs Municipal Limeno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Aguila win (53%). Probabilities: CD Aguila 53%, draw 24%, Municipal Limeno 23%.

How many goals are expected in CD Aguila vs Municipal Limeno?

The model expects 3.28 goals (CD Aguila 2 · Municipal Limeno 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Aguila vs Municipal Limeno?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.