Football · El Salvador Apertura · 16/11, 00:00

Prediction: CD INCA Aruba vs CD Aguila

Team pages: CD INCA Aruba · CD Aguila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

CD INCA Aruba1.04

CD Aguila2.14

1X2

16% 22% 62%

CD INCA Aruba Draw CD Aguila

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

CD INCA Aruba 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLLDL

CD Aguila 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDWWLD

Head-to-head

CD INCA Aruba 0–1 CD Aguila (1 last)

CD Aguila3-1CD INCA Aruba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD INCA Aruba 1440 · CD Aguila 1553

	CD INCA Aruba	Draw	CD Aguila
Our model	16%	22%	62%
Market	16%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Aguila (rating 1440 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD INCA Aruba	CD Aguila
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.00

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.39 ★
2	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:04 +16’	5.50	4.00	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +14’	5.30	4.39	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD INCA Aruba 0–0–1 CD Aguila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD Aguila	3-1 HT 1-0	CD INCA Aruba

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	20	11	7	2	35	15	40
2	AD Isidro Metapan	20	10	5	5	27	21	35
3	CD FAS	20	9	7	4	33	23	34
4	CD Aguila	20	8	7	5	37	28	31
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	20	6	10	4	27	20	28
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
7	Alianza FC	20	6	8	6	26	27	26
8	Municipal Limeno	21	6	6	9	32	33	24
9	Atlético Balboa	20	6	5	9	25	32	23
10	CD Cacahuatique	20	4	8	8	22	30	20
11	Fuerte San Francisco	21	3	8	10	21	36	17
12	CD INCA Aruba	20	4	5	11	15	37	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD INCA Aruba	CD Aguila
Atlético Balboa	1-4 L	2-2 D
AD Isidro Metapan	1-1 D	3-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-1 L	4-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	2-1 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-2 L	0-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-4 L	1-0 W
CD FAS	1-1 D	3-1 W
Municipal Limeno	2-1 W	1-1 D
Alianza FC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD INCA Aruba

WDWDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	2	4	L
07/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
31/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
24/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
16/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W

CD Aguila

WLWWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-3	2-3	8	8	L
01/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	2-1	4-3	6	7	W
24/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
18/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
11/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
03/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
30/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
27/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	9	12	L
20/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD INCA Aruba vs CD Aguila?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Aguila win (62%). Probabilities: CD INCA Aruba 16%, draw 22%, CD Aguila 62%.

How many goals are expected in CD INCA Aruba vs CD Aguila?

The model expects 3.18 goals (CD INCA Aruba 1.04 · CD Aguila 2.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD INCA Aruba vs CD Aguila?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.