Football · El Salvador Apertura · 15/11, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs CD FAS

Team pages: Alianza FC · CD FAS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Alianza FC1.16

CD FAS1.49

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Alianza FC Draw CD FAS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWLLWL

CD FAS 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDLDDD

Head-to-head

Alianza FC 2–1–3 CD FAS (6 last)

CD FAS2-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC0-2CD FAS
CD FAS3-1Alianza FC
CD FAS2-2Alianza FC
Alianza FC2-0CD FAS
Alianza FC1-0CD FAS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1460 · CD FAS 1526

	Alianza FC	Draw	CD FAS
Our model	28%	28%	43%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD FAS (rating 1460 vs 1526).
H2H favours CD FAS: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	CD FAS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	3.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.6	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.38 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.04

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:58 +16’	2.63	3.40	2.25
06:01 +13’	3.00▲	3.50▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +13’	3.38	3.35	2.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 2–1–3 CD FAS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/10/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD FAS	2-1 HT 2-1	Alianza FC
12/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	0-2 HT 0-1	CD FAS
15/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD FAS	3-1 HT 2-0	Alianza FC
26/10/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD FAS	2-2 HT 2-2	Alianza FC
25/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-0 HT 1-0	CD FAS
06/04/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	1-0 HT 1-0	CD FAS

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	20	11	7	2	35	15	40
2	AD Isidro Metapan	20	10	5	5	27	21	35
3	CD FAS	20	9	7	4	33	23	34
4	CD Aguila	20	8	7	5	37	28	31
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	20	6	10	4	27	20	28
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
7	Alianza FC	20	6	8	6	26	27	26
8	Municipal Limeno	21	6	6	9	32	33	24
9	Atlético Balboa	20	6	5	9	25	32	23
10	CD Cacahuatique	20	4	8	8	22	30	20
11	Fuerte San Francisco	21	3	8	10	21	36	17
12	CD INCA Aruba	20	4	5	11	15	37	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	CD FAS
Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 L	2-2 D
CD Aguila	3-2 W	1-3 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Atletico Balboa	0-1 L	1-0 W
AD Isidro Metapan	1-0 W	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-2 D	2-2 D
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

WDLDDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
08/11	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-2	2	8	W
05/11	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
01/11	Atletico Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
24/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
12/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
09/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

CD FAS

WDWWLDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
09/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	9	6	D
02/11	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
24/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
22/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
19/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
11/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
05/10	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
28/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs CD FAS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD FAS win (44%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 29%, draw 27%, CD FAS 44%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs CD FAS?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Alianza FC 1.16 · CD FAS 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs CD FAS?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.