Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 09/11, 00:15

Prediction: CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs Real Espana

Team pages: CA Independiente Siguatepeque · Real Espana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

CA Independiente Siguatepeque0.78

Real Espana1.83

1X2

15% 24% 62%

CA Independiente Siguatepeque Draw Real Espana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente Siguatepeque 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Real Espana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWWLWW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente Siguatepeque 0–1–0 Real Espana (1 last)

Real Espana1-1CA Independiente Siguatepeque

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente Siguatepeque 1456 · Real Espana 1552

	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	Draw	Real Espana
Our model	14%	24%	61%
Market	15%	23%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Espana (rating 1456 vs 1552).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	Real Espana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

16.00

X3.90

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:16 +31’	6.00	3.90	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Siguatepeque 0–1–0 Real Espana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Independiente Siguatepeque

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	13	10	2	1	34	8	32
2	Motagua	13	9	1	3	21	10	28
3	Real Espana	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
4	CD Marathon	12	6	4	2	18	11	22
5	Olancho FC	13	3	8	2	15	12	17
6	Lobos UPNFM	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
7	Estrella Roja	13	4	4	5	22	24	16
8	Atletico Choloma	12	4	1	7	12	15	13
9	Genesis de Comayagua	12	3	2	7	15	16	11
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	12	2	5	5	11	21	11
11	CD Platense	12	2	2	8	12	29	8
12	Juticalpa	13	2	0	11	11	36	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	Real Espana
Estrella Roja	1-3 L	1-0 W
CD Marathon	2-2 D	1-1 D
Lobos UPNFM	0-4 L	2-0 W
Olancho FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Olimpia	0-4 L	1-2 L
Juticalpa	2-1 W	3-1 W
Motagua	0-0 D	1-0 W
CD Platense	1-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Espana (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente Siguatepeque

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
25/10	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	2-2	4	4	D
18/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-4	7	4	L
12/10	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
21/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
14/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
30/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
22/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	6	D

Real Espana

DDWWDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
25/10	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	3-1	4-3	2	8	W
16/10	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
11/10	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
20/09	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	0	10	D
07/09	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
23/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
16/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs Real Espana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Espana win (62%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Siguatepeque 15%, draw 24%, Real Espana 62%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs Real Espana?

The model expects 2.61 goals (CA Independiente Siguatepeque 0.78 · Real Espana 1.83), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs Real Espana?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.