Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 06/11, 02:30

Prediction: CD Marathon vs CD Platense

Team pages: CD Marathon · CD Platense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

CD Marathon2.32

CD Platense0.91

1X2

68% 20% 12%

CD Marathon Draw CD Platense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Marathon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDWDL

CD Platense 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLWLLL

Head-to-head

CD Marathon 2–3–1 CD Platense (6 last)

CD Platense1-1CD Marathon
CD Platense3-1CD Marathon
CD Marathon2-2CD Platense
CD Platense2-2CD Marathon
CD Marathon3-0CD Platense
CD Marathon1-0CD Platense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Marathon 1531 · CD Platense 1429

	CD Marathon	Draw	CD Platense
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	68%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1531 vs 1429).
H2H favours CD Marathon: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Marathon	CD Platense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:24 +6’	1.33	4.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Marathon 2–3–1 CD Platense

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	1-1 HT 1-1	CD Marathon
05/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	3-1 HT 1-1	CD Marathon
13/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Platense
21/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	2-2 HT 2-0	CD Marathon
19/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	3-0 HT 2-0	CD Platense
08/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Platense

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	12	9	2	1	26	8	29
2	Real Espana	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
3	Motagua	12	8	1	3	19	9	25
4	CD Marathon	12	6	4	2	18	11	22
5	Olancho FC	12	3	7	2	15	12	16
6	Estrella Roja	12	4	4	4	21	22	16
7	Lobos UPNFM	12	4	3	5	15	16	15
8	Atletico Choloma	12	4	1	7	12	15	13
9	Genesis de Comayagua	12	3	2	7	15	16	11
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	12	2	5	5	11	21	11
11	CD Platense	12	2	2	8	12	29	8
12	Juticalpa	12	2	0	10	11	28	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Marathon	CD Platense
Motagua	0-2 L	0-2 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	2-2 D	2-1 W
Olancho FC	2-1 W	1-4 L
Lobos UPNFM	0-0 D	0-2 L
Juticalpa	2-3 L	2-1 W
CD Olimpia	1-0 W	1-4 L
Estrella Roja	5-0 W	2-2 D
Genesis de Comayagua	2-1 W	0-3 L
Real Espana	1-1 D	3-4 L
Atletico Choloma	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Marathon

WDWWWLDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	13	1	L
25/10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
16/10	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
21/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	2-3	3	9	L
14/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	8	14	W
06/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
29/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W

CD Platense

LLWLDLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	1-4	2	6	L
25/10	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-3	3-4	9	8	L
17/10	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
09/10	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
18/09	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	10	4	L
12/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
04/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
30/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
23/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	9	9	L
15/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Marathon vs CD Platense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Marathon win (68%). Probabilities: CD Marathon 68%, draw 20%, CD Platense 12%.

How many goals are expected in CD Marathon vs CD Platense?

The model expects 3.23 goals (CD Marathon 2.32 · CD Platense 0.91), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Marathon vs CD Platense?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.