Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 09/11, 02:30
Prediction: CD Marathon vs Atletico Choloma
Team pages: CD Marathon · Atletico Choloma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
CD Marathon1.83
Atletico Choloma0.74
1X2
CD Marathon
Draw
Atletico Choloma
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Marathon
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Atletico Choloma
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Marathon
3–2–1
Atletico Choloma
(6 last)
- Atletico Choloma0-1CD Marathon
- CD Marathon0-1Atletico Choloma
- Atletico Choloma0-0CD Marathon
- Atletico Choloma0-4CD Marathon
- CD Marathon1-0Atletico Choloma
- CD Marathon1-1Atletico Choloma
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Marathon 1541 · Atletico Choloma 1483
| CD Marathon | Draw | Atletico Choloma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1541 vs 1483).
- H2H favours CD Marathon: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Marathon | Atletico Choloma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.4 | 2.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.5 | 7.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Marathon 3–2–1 Atletico Choloma
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Atletico Choloma | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Marathon |
| 01/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | CD Marathon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Choloma |
| 11/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Atletico Choloma | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CD Marathon |
| 28/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Atletico Choloma | 0-4 HT 0-4 | CD Marathon |
| 14/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | CD Marathon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Choloma |
| 12/07/25 America Friendlies | CD Marathon | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Choloma |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 32 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | Motagua | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | CD Marathon | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Estrella Roja | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 19 |
| 6 | Olancho FC | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 7 | Lobos UPNFM | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico Choloma | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | Genesis de Comayagua | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 12 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 38 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Marathon | Atletico Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| CD Platense | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Motagua | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Olancho FC | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Lobos UPNFM | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Juticalpa | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| CD Olimpia | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Estrella Roja | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Real Espana | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 3 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Marathon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 02/11 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/10 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 21/09 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 14/09 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 14 | W |
| 06/09 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Atletico Choloma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 24/10 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 18/10 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 19/09 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 13/09 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Marathon vs Atletico Choloma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Marathon win (63%). Probabilities: CD Marathon 63%, draw 22%, Atletico Choloma 15%.
How many goals are expected in CD Marathon vs Atletico Choloma?
The model expects 2.57 goals (CD Marathon 1.83 · Atletico Choloma 0.74), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Marathon vs Atletico Choloma?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.