Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 08/11, 00:15
Prediction: Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua
Team pages: Lobos UPNFM · Motagua
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.21Total
Lobos UPNFM0.86
Motagua1.36
1X2
Lobos UPNFM
Draw
Motagua
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Lobos UPNFM
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Motagua
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lobos UPNFM
2–2–2
Motagua
(6 last)
- Motagua4-1Lobos UPNFM
- Lobos UPNFM2-1Motagua
- Motagua2-0Lobos UPNFM
- Lobos UPNFM0-0Motagua
- Motagua3-3Lobos UPNFM
- Lobos UPNFM2-1Motagua
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lobos UPNFM 1509 · Motagua 1572
| Lobos UPNFM | Draw | Motagua | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 30% | 47% |
| Market | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motagua (rating 1509 vs 1572).
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lobos UPNFM | Motagua | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.2 | 3.9 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lobos UPNFM 2–2–2 Motagua
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Motagua | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 01/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Motagua |
| 12/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Motagua | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 28/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Motagua |
| 14/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Motagua | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 08/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Motagua |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 32 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | Motagua | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | CD Marathon | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Lobos UPNFM | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico Choloma | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | Genesis de Comayagua | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 12 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lobos UPNFM | Motagua |
|---|---|---|
| Olancho FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 4-3 W | 1-0 W |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CD Marathon | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| CD Platense | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Atletico Choloma | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Real Espana | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Juticalpa | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Motagua (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lobos UPNFM
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 4-3 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/10 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/09 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
Motagua
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/11 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 20/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Motagua win (49%). Probabilities: Lobos UPNFM 24%, draw 27%, Motagua 49%.
How many goals are expected in Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?
The model expects 2.21 goals (Lobos UPNFM 0.86 · Motagua 1.36), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.