Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 07/11, 22:00
Prediction: Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja
Team pages: Juticalpa · Estrella Roja
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.62Total
Juticalpa1.47
Estrella Roja2.15
1X2
Juticalpa
Draw
Estrella Roja
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Juticalpa
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Estrella Roja
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Juticalpa
4–2
Estrella Roja
(6 last)
- Estrella Roja5-2Juticalpa
- Juticalpa2-1Estrella Roja
- Juticalpa3-0Estrella Roja
- Juticalpa2-1Estrella Roja
- Estrella Roja1-0Juticalpa
- Juticalpa2-0Estrella Roja
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juticalpa 1427 · Estrella Roja 1485
| Juticalpa | Draw | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 22% | 52% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estrella Roja (rating 1427 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Juticalpa: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Juticalpa | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.9 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 3.7 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juticalpa 4–0–2 Estrella Roja
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Estrella Roja | 5-2 HT 0-1 | Juticalpa |
| 24/02/24 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Estrella Roja |
| 07/10/23 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Estrella Roja |
| 27/03/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Estrella Roja |
| 26/02/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Estrella Roja | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Juticalpa |
| 19/09/21 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Estrella Roja |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 32 |
| 2 | Motagua | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Espana | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | CD Marathon | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Lobos UPNFM | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico Choloma | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 9 | Genesis de Comayagua | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 11 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Juticalpa | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| CD Olimpia | 0-8 L | 2-2 D |
| Real Espana | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Motagua | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Atletico Choloma | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| CD Platense | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| CD Marathon | 3-2 W | 0-5 L |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Estrella Roja (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juticalpa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-4 | 0-8 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/10 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 14/09 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/09 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
Estrella Roja
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 13 | W |
| 11/10 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 12/09 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 0-5 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 23/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Estrella Roja win (52%). Probabilities: Juticalpa 24%, draw 24%, Estrella Roja 52%.
How many goals are expected in Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja?
The model expects 3.62 goals (Juticalpa 1.47 · Estrella Roja 2.15), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.