Football · El Salvador Apertura · 05/11, 02:00

Prediction: Municipal Limeno vs Fuerte San Francisco

Team pages: Municipal Limeno · Fuerte San Francisco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Municipal Limeno2.09

Fuerte San Francisco1.14

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Municipal Limeno Draw Fuerte San Francisco

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Municipal Limeno 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLWDD

Fuerte San Francisco 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLDWLLL

Head-to-head

Municipal Limeno 4–1–1 Fuerte San Francisco (6 last)

Fuerte San Francisco0-2Municipal Limeno
Fuerte San Francisco0-2Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno5-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco1-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno2-1Fuerte San Francisco
Municipal Limeno1-2Fuerte San Francisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Municipal Limeno 1491 · Fuerte San Francisco 1414

	Municipal Limeno	Draw	Fuerte San Francisco
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Municipal Limeno (rating 1491 vs 1414).
H2H favours Municipal Limeno: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Municipal Limeno	Fuerte San Francisco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	2.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.64 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +3’	1.55	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +1’	1.65	3.68	4.80
08:01 +1’	1.64▼	3.74▲	4.79▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Municipal Limeno 4–1–1 Fuerte San Francisco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-2 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno
12/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-2 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno
15/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	5-0 HT 1-0	Fuerte San Francisco
26/10/25 El Salvador Apertura	Fuerte San Francisco	1-1 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno
25/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	2-1 HT 0-1	Fuerte San Francisco
24/03/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	1-2 HT 1-1	Fuerte San Francisco

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	17	9	6	2	30	13	33
2	CD FAS	18	9	5	4	29	19	32
3	AD Isidro Metapan	18	9	4	5	24	19	31
4	CD Aguila	18	8	6	4	34	24	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Alianza FC	17	5	8	4	23	22	23
8	Municipal Limeno	18	6	4	8	27	27	22
9	Atletico Balboa	18	4	5	9	17	28	17
10	CD Cacahuatique	18	3	7	8	19	29	16
11	CD INCA Aruba	18	4	4	10	13	32	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	18	2	6	10	17	33	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Municipal Limeno	Fuerte San Francisco
AD Isidro Metapan	1-1 D	2-3 L
CD Cacahuatique	3-3 D	2-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	2-3 L	0-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-2 L	0-0 D
CD INCA Aruba	1-2 L	1-2 L
Alianza FC	2-3 L	2-2 D
CD Aguila	0-0 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Municipal Limeno (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Municipal Limeno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-2	3-3	4	4	D
17/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
11/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
04/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
02/10	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
10/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	6	10	D

Fuerte San Francisco

LLDDLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-2	3-4	1	7	L
25/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
18/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
10/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
01/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
19/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Municipal Limeno vs Fuerte San Francisco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Municipal Limeno win (58%). Probabilities: Municipal Limeno 58%, draw 23%, Fuerte San Francisco 19%.

How many goals are expected in Municipal Limeno vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Municipal Limeno 2.09 · Fuerte San Francisco 1.14), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Municipal Limeno vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.