Football · El Salvador Apertura · 12/11, 22:30

Prediction: Atlético Balboa vs CD INCA Aruba

Team pages: Atlético Balboa · CD INCA Aruba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Atlético Balboa1.63

CD INCA Aruba1

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Atlético Balboa Draw CD INCA Aruba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlético Balboa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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CD INCA Aruba 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atlético Balboa 1–1–2 CD INCA Aruba (4 last)

CD INCA Aruba1-0Atlético Balboa
Atlético Balboa1-1CD INCA Aruba
CD INCA Aruba1-2Atlético Balboa
Atlético Balboa0-1CD INCA Aruba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlético Balboa 1487 · CD INCA Aruba 1459

	Atlético Balboa	Draw	CD INCA Aruba
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD INCA Aruba: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlético Balboa	CD INCA Aruba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +11’	1.73	3.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlético Balboa 1–1–2 CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD INCA Aruba	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlético Balboa
31/05/26 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Atlético Balboa	1-1 HT 0-0	CD INCA Aruba
16/05/26 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	CD INCA Aruba	1-2 HT 1-0	Atlético Balboa
10/05/26 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Atlético Balboa	0-1 HT 0-1	CD INCA Aruba

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	19	11	6	2	34	14	39
2	CD FAS	19	9	6	4	31	21	33
3	AD Isidro Metapan	19	9	5	5	25	20	32
4	CD Aguila	19	8	6	5	36	27	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	19	6	9	4	25	18	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
7	Alianza FC	19	6	8	5	26	26	26
8	Municipal Limeno	20	6	5	9	31	32	23
9	Atlético Balboa	19	5	5	9	21	31	20
10	CD Cacahuatique	19	4	7	8	21	29	19
11	CD INCA Aruba	19	4	5	10	14	33	17
12	Fuerte San Francisco	20	2	8	10	20	36	14

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlético Balboa	CD INCA Aruba
Municipal Limeno	4-3 W	2-1 W
Alianza FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	2-1 W
CD Aguila	2-2 D	1-3 L
CD FAS	0-1 L	1-1 D
AD Isidro Metapan	2-3 L	1-1 D
CD Cacahuatique	0-2 L	0-1 L
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-1 D	0-2 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlético Balboa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-3	4-3	7	3	W
01/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
25/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	0	6	W
18/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
11/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
04/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-3	5	4	L
29/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
27/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
31/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
24/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
16/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlético Balboa vs CD INCA Aruba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlético Balboa win (51%). Probabilities: Atlético Balboa 51%, draw 26%, CD INCA Aruba 23%.

How many goals are expected in Atlético Balboa vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Atlético Balboa 1.63 · CD INCA Aruba 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlético Balboa vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.