Football · El Salvador Apertura · 11/11, 22:30

Prediction: Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza FC

Team pages: Fuerte San Francisco · Alianza FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Fuerte San Francisco1.18

Alianza FC1.9

1X2

22% 25% 53%

Fuerte San Francisco Draw Alianza FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerte San Francisco 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDWLLLDD

Alianza FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Fuerte San Francisco 0–1–5 Alianza FC (6 last)

Alianza FC2-2Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-2Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco1-3Alianza FC
Alianza FC1-0Fuerte San Francisco
Alianza FC2-0Fuerte San Francisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerte San Francisco 1427 · Alianza FC 1521

	Fuerte San Francisco	Draw	Alianza FC
Our model	22%	24%	53%
Market	22%	25%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1427 vs 1521).
H2H favours Alianza FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuerte San Francisco	Alianza FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.3	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.60

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +11’	4.10	3.60	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerte San Francisco 0–1–5 Alianza FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Fuerte San Francisco
01/05/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
08/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	3-2 HT 1-0	Fuerte San Francisco
16/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Fuerte San Francisco	1-3 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
14/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco
19/05/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	19	11	6	2	34	14	39
2	CD FAS	19	9	6	4	31	21	33
3	AD Isidro Metapan	19	9	5	5	25	20	32
4	CD Aguila	19	8	6	5	36	27	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	19	6	9	4	25	18	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
7	Alianza FC	19	6	8	5	26	26	26
8	Municipal Limeno	20	6	5	9	31	32	23
9	Atlético Balboa	19	5	5	9	21	31	20
10	CD Cacahuatique	19	4	7	8	21	29	19
11	CD INCA Aruba	19	4	5	10	14	33	17
12	Fuerte San Francisco	20	2	8	10	20	36	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerte San Francisco	Alianza FC
CD FAS	2-2 D	1-2 L
CD Aguila	3-4 L	3-2 W
Atlético Balboa	1-2 L	0-1 L
AD Isidro Metapan	2-3 L	1-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	2-1 W	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-1 D	2-2 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-3 L	0-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuerte San Francisco

DDLDWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
05/11	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
01/11	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-2	3-4	1	7	L
25/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
18/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
10/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
01/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	4	7	D

Alianza FC

DWDLDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-2	2	8	W
05/11	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
01/11	Atletico Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
24/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
12/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
09/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza FC win (53%). Probabilities: Fuerte San Francisco 22%, draw 25%, Alianza FC 53%.

How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza FC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Fuerte San Francisco 1.18 · Alianza FC 1.9), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.