Football · El Salvador Apertura · 05/11, 02:00

Prediction: CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Alianza FC

Team pages: CD Luis Angel Firpo · Alianza FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

CD Luis Angel Firpo1.64

Alianza FC0.94

1X2

53% 26% 21%

CD Luis Angel Firpo Draw Alianza FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Luis Angel Firpo 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWWDD

Alianza FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLDDWL

Head-to-head

CD Luis Angel Firpo 2–3–1 Alianza FC (6 last)

Alianza FC2-2CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Luis Angel Firpo2-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC2-3CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Luis Angel Firpo0-0Alianza FC
CD Luis Angel Firpo0-5Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-3CD Luis Angel Firpo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1548 · Alianza FC 1470

	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Draw	Alianza FC
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Luis Angel Firpo (rating 1548 vs 1470).
H2H favours CD Luis Angel Firpo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Alianza FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.7	5.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.61
2	3.40 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.78 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +3’	1.90	3.40	3.40
15:50 +15’	1.85▼	3.40	3.60▲
20:06 +7’	1.67▼	3.50▲	4.20▲
13:01 +3’	1.67	3.60▲	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +10’	1.68	3.67	4.65
17:42 +24’	1.69▲	3.58▼	4.62▼
20:05 +8’	1.71▲	3.53▼	4.63▲
09:44 +19’	1.68▼	3.56▲	4.72▲
11:36 +29’	1.67▼	3.61▲	4.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Luis Angel Firpo 2–3–1 Alianza FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Luis Angel Firpo
22/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	2-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
25/01/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-3 HT 0-0	CD Luis Angel Firpo
21/12/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
28/09/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-5 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
27/07/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	3-3 HT 2-1	CD Luis Angel Firpo

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	17	9	6	2	30	13	33
2	CD FAS	18	9	5	4	29	19	32
3	AD Isidro Metapan	18	9	4	5	24	19	31
4	CD Aguila	18	8	6	4	34	24	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Alianza FC	17	5	8	4	23	22	23
8	Municipal Limeno	18	6	4	8	27	27	22
9	Atletico Balboa	18	4	5	9	17	28	17
10	CD Cacahuatique	18	3	7	8	19	29	16
11	CD INCA Aruba	18	4	4	10	13	32	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	18	2	6	10	17	33	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Alianza FC
CD FAS	1-1 D	1-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD INCA Aruba	2-0 W	1-1 D
Municipal Limeno	3-2 W	3-2 W
Fuerte San Francisco	3-0 W	2-2 D
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	0-0 D
Atlético Balboa	3-1 W	0-1 L
Internacional Santa Tecla	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Luis Angel Firpo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Luis Angel Firpo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
25/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/10	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	2-0	2-0	9	3	W
11/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
04/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
27/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	3	12	W
24/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
21/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
07/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-0	6	5	W

Alianza FC

WDDWDLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Atletico Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
24/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
12/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
09/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Alianza FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Luis Angel Firpo win (53%). Probabilities: CD Luis Angel Firpo 53%, draw 26%, Alianza FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Alianza FC?

The model expects 2.58 goals (CD Luis Angel Firpo 1.64 · Alianza FC 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Alianza FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.