Football · Spain Segunda · 08/11, 18:30

Prediction: Las Palmas vs Eldense

Team pages: Las Palmas · Eldense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Las Palmas1.49

Eldense1.15

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Las Palmas Draw Eldense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Palmas 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Eldense 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Palmas 1484 · Eldense 1504

	Las Palmas	Draw	Eldense
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Palmas	Eldense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +4’	2.10	3.40	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
2	Almeria	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
3	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
4	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
5	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
6	Sporting Gijon	12	7	1	4	13	13	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22	11	21
8	Burgos	12	6	3	3	17	13	21
9	Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17	15	18
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
12	Cordoba	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
13	Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18	23	13
17	Leganes	12	3	3	6	10	20	12
18	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
19	Cadiz	12	2	4	6	15	16	10
20	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
21	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10	23	7
22	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10	27	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Palmas	Eldense
Oviedo	3-2 W	4-1 W
Mallorca	1-3 L	0-0 D
Valladolid	2-2 D	3-2 W
Eibar	2-3 L	1-2 L
Burgos	1-2 L	0-1 L
Leganes	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Eldense (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Palmas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Oviedo Spain Segunda	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
24/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
17/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-2	0-3	3	8	L
11/10	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
04/10	Valladolid Spain Segunda	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
27/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	1	8	L
20/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	9	5	L
12/09	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
04/09	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/08	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-5	1	5	L

Eldense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
25/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
18/10	Valladolid Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	2	8	W
10/10	Cordoba Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
02/10	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	4-1	6	6	W
27/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
13/09	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
05/09	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
29/08	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Palmas vs Eldense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Palmas win (44%). Probabilities: Las Palmas 44%, draw 28%, Eldense 28%.

How many goals are expected in Las Palmas vs Eldense?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Las Palmas 1.49 · Eldense 1.15), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Eldense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.