Football · Spain Segunda · 16/11, 20:30

Prediction: Albacete vs Celta Fortuna

Team pages: Albacete · Celta Fortuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Albacete2.05

Celta Fortuna1.18

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Albacete Draw Celta Fortuna

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Albacete 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Celta Fortuna 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albacete 1471 · Celta Fortuna 1463

	Albacete	Draw	Celta Fortuna
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albacete	Celta Fortuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.5	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.68
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.12 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:57 +9’	1.67	3.60	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +1’	1.68	4.12	4.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	24	10	29
2	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
5	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	14	15	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	22	12	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
10	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	22	22	19
11	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	22	20	18
12	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
13	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	15	17	15
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	13	3	4	6	19	25	13
17	Leganes	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
18	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	17	22	11
19	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	16	18	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	13	24	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	10	30	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albacete	Celta Fortuna
Sabadell	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sporting Gijon	1-2 L	2-3 L
Eibar	1-3 L	0-4 L
Girona	0-2 L	1-5 L
Cordoba	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Albacete (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albacete

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Leganes Spain Segunda	2-0	3-1	5	12	W
31/10	Sabadell Spain Segunda	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
25/10	Eldense Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	10	8	W
17/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
12/10	Valladolid Spain Segunda	0-4	0-5	5	6	L
03/10	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-0	1-3	6	3	L
25/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
18/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
12/09	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-0	0-2	3	2	L

Celta Fortuna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
31/10	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
24/10	Girona Spain Segunda	0-4	1-5	2	5	L
19/10	Tenerife Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	3-0	4-1	1	6	W
04/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
26/09	Sabadell Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
20/09	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
14/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-4	0-4	5	7	L
05/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albacete vs Celta Fortuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albacete win (56%). Probabilities: Albacete 56%, draw 24%, Celta Fortuna 20%.

How many goals are expected in Albacete vs Celta Fortuna?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Albacete 2.05 · Celta Fortuna 1.18), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Albacete vs Celta Fortuna?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.