Football · Spain Segunda · 08/11, 18:30

Prediction: Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid

Team pages: Sporting Gijon · Valladolid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Sporting Gijon1.51

Valladolid1.31

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Sporting Gijon Draw Valladolid

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Gijon 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWLW

Valladolid 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDWLLW

Head-to-head

Sporting Gijon 1–2–3 Valladolid (6 last)

Sporting Gijon2-2Valladolid
Valladolid2-3Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon1-1Valladolid
Valladolid2-0Sporting Gijon
Valladolid1-0Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon1-2Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Gijon 1540 · Valladolid 1518

	Sporting Gijon	Draw	Valladolid
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	40%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valladolid: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Gijon	Valladolid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	3.25 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +2’	2.15	3.20	3.25
03:15 +3’	2.30▲	3.10▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:58 +18’	2.38	3.24	3.14
18:19 +15’	2.44▲	3.06▼	3.21▲
13:18 +17’	2.40▼	3.06	3.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Gijon 1–2–3 Valladolid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	2-2 HT 1-2	Valladolid
19/10/25 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	2-3 HT 1-1	Sporting Gijon
17/02/24 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	1-1 HT 0-1	Valladolid
11/08/23 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	2-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Gijon
28/01/22 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Gijon
23/10/21 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	1-2 HT 0-1	Valladolid

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
2	Almeria	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
3	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
4	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
5	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
6	Sporting Gijon	12	7	1	4	13	13	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22	11	21
8	Burgos	12	6	3	3	17	13	21
9	Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17	15	18
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
12	Cordoba	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
13	Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18	23	13
17	Leganes	12	3	3	6	10	20	12
18	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
19	Cadiz	12	2	4	6	15	16	10
20	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
21	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10	23	7
22	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10	27	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Gijon	Valladolid
AD Ceuta FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Albacete	2-1 W	5-0 W
Cadiz	1-0 W	1-1 D
Oviedo	0-2 L	0-3 L
FC Andorra	3-1 W	1-0 W
Eldense	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Gijon (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Gijon

WLLWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
25/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
17/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
04/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	8	W
27/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
19/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W

Valladolid

DWLDWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Leganes Spain Segunda	3-1	4-3	6	6	W
23/10	Granada Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
18/10	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	13	8	L
12/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	4-0	5-0	7	6	W
04/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
20/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
13/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
05/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/08	Cadiz Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Gijon win (40%). Probabilities: Sporting Gijon 40%, draw 29%, Valladolid 31%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Sporting Gijon 1.51 · Valladolid 1.31), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.